The Green Party surged to a record 16 percent support in a new 1News Verian poll released on September 28, 2026, while both major parties slid to 28 percent. The shift positions the left bloc to potentially govern, with the Opportunity Party holding the balance of power ahead of the November election.
Greens Reach Historic High as Major Parties Slide to Equal Footing
New Zealand’s political landscape shifted dramatically as the Green Party climbed to 16 percent in the latest 1News Verian survey conducted between September 23 and 27, 2026. This result surpasses the party’s previous high of 15 percent recorded in July 2017 and would translate to 19 members of Parliament if repeated on election day.
While the Greens celebrated their surge, both major parties experienced declines. National and Labour dropped to 28 percent each, a figure that would leave each major party with 34 seats in the next Parliament. Labour’s standing marks its lowest result since February 2024, continuing a downward trajectory over recent polls. National also fell, though by less, dropping from the previous poll.
Pretty cool, isn’t it? But look, I say the same thing whether the polls are up or down, which is that we shouldn’t just watch the polls, but realise that New Zealanders have agency. Nothing is set in stone.
Photo: 1news
Chlöe Swarbrick, Green Party co-leader
Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick emphasized that her party was taking nothing for granted despite the record numbers, adding, We take nothing for granted, and we'll be working hard every single day to earn New Zealanders' trust to implement policies that actually improve their lives. The poll surveyed 1004 eligible voters, with a maximum sampling error of about ±3.4% at the 95% confidence level. The 1News Verian poll results are collected through mobile and online panels. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5 percent, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. Some 13 percent did not know or refused to say who they would vote for.
Parliamentary Seat Projections and Potential Government Scenarios
The survey numbers outline mathematical paths for forming a government after November’s election. Based on these numbers, the coalition of National, ACT and NZ First would gather 59 seats between them if an election was held when polling took place. The bloc of Labour, the Green Party, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity would trump that with 65 seats.
Greens are POLLING ABOVE Labour!!! #owenjones
In one projected seat scenario, National, ACT and NZ First would hold 59 seats, two short of the 61 needed for a majority, while Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would hold 54. In both scenarios, the Opportunity Party and its seven MPs would mean neither the current coalition nor the left bloc could govern without its support, with Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong pitched as the vote for stable government. Wong said the poll showed voters were unhappy with Labour and National, which are tied on 28% and both down, and stated that the party’s result showed a solid base of support. Wong added: Of course, we're going to keep working really hard to increase that, and if people really want to see a stable next government, then they need to party vote Opportunity.
The poll also showed these results would lead to an overhang of four seats above the normal 120. That is based on Te Pāti Māori holding its four seats and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi, running for her freshly launched Te Tai Tokerau Party, retaining the Te Tai Tokerau seat. An alternative calculation of the Māori seats gives Te Pāti Māori just one seat, Te Tai Tokerau none and leaves all other parties unchanged with no overhang and a total of 120 MPs in Parliament, though the left bloc remains able to form a coalition under this scenario. Luxon appears to have ruled out National working with Opportunity because of its tax policies, while Labour says it wouldn’t agree to those policies in a coalition deal.
Minor Parties Gain Influence as Major Leaders Clash Over Tax and Strategy
As minor parties gain ground, Opportunity fell two points to 6%. The results come after Labour and National kicked off their election campaigns in Auckland on Sunday. At the International Convention Centre in Auckland Central, National continued its rallying cry of “no new taxes” and claims the left bloc would introduce “nine new taxes”. Christopher Luxon also warned against strategic voting, calling the strategy for people to give their party vote ACT or NZ First – and their electorate vote to National an insanely stupid idea.
Greens top polls #greenparty #zackpolanski #labour #reform #politics
At the Due Drop Event Centre in Manukau, Hipkins dismissed National’s tax attack campaign as “bulls***” and his party unveiled a new cost-of-living policy – wiping 10% of student loan debt for those who didn’t benefit from Labour’s previous fees-free policy. Labour has dropped in today’s poll by 2 points since the last 1News poll in August, with 28% being its lowest result since February 2024.
In the preferred Prime Minister rankings, Christopher Luxon was on top – up two points to 19%. Chris Hipkins was down a point to 14%, while Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick jumped two points to 8%. NZ First leader Winston Peters remained steady on 7% and Act leader David Seymour was also on 7%, up two points.
