Gulf countries try to extricate themselves from the bellicose face-to-face between Iran and the United States

2023-11-10 21:30:08
Saudi Defense Minister Khaled Ben Salman and his American counterpart, Lloyd Austin, in Washington, November 1, 2023. SUSAN WALSH / AP

The detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, signed in March under the aegis of China, was singularly lacking in substance. The war between Israel and Hamas gives it back some. Faced with the risk of regional conflagration, the two rivals are renewing a dialogue, interrupted by six years of diplomatic rupture. Four days after the outbreak of war, on October 11, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman, known as “MBS”, and Iranian President Ebrahim Raïssi spoke on the telephone for the first time. Sunday November 12, Mr. Raïssi is expected in Riyadh for an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.

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Saudi Arabia, like the neighboring United Arab Emirates, does not want to be locked into a belligerent face-to-face between Iran on the one hand, Israel and the United States on the other. Key to de-escalation, the dialogue with Tehran does not call into question normalization with Israel nor their inclusion in a regional security architecture under the American umbrella. The Islamic Republic does not want a war either, despite the attacks of its cronies within the “axis of resistance” to Israel. Riyadh can offer him a way out, by including him in a diplomatic solution.

Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7 was a difficult pill to swallow for the Saudi crown. The Palestinian movement’s coup, viewed with distrust in Riyadh, has, intentionally or not, suspended negotiations with the Jewish state and removed the prospect of additional American security guarantees. The kingdom, already frustrated that Iran has not revised its expansionist ambitions, has lost the illusion of regional security under which to build its economic development. Only the significant military force deployed by Washington guarantees it today, as in the United Arab Emirates, which will host COP28 from November 30 to December 12, not to suffer new attacks from Iraqi militias and Yemeni Houthi rebels.

“Shocked by Israel’s weakness”

Abu Dhabi and Doha, which have good relations with Tehran, were the first to receive his de-escalation messages. The eagerness with which Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, denied any leading role in the Hamas attack was another. The Gulf countries have no illusions about the destabilizing role of Iran and the ambitions it harbors, but direct dialogue with Tehran remains the safest strategy for reducing tensions. “Unlike the Israelis, the Golfers have understood that confrontation is not a solution. Especially since American security guarantees are no longer the same and they were shocked by Israel’s weakness.analyzes Fatiha Dazi-Héni, Gulf specialist at the Strategic Research Institute of the Military School (Irsem).

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