Avian Flu Threat: Experts Warn of Potential for Human-to-Human Transmission
A growing wave of avian flu infections in animals globally is raising concerns among health officials, with experts warning the virus is undergoing mutations that could increase the risk of human-to-human transmission and potentially trigger a new pandemic.
The situation is particularly acute in North America, where a recent outbreak led to the culling of approximately 300 ostriches in Edgewood, British Columbia, on Friday. This measure was deemed “necessary” by a leading biosafety expert due to the risks associated with the H5N1 strain of the virus.
“You should know that it’s not just any disease,” a senior official stated in a recent interview. “We are currently talking about a virus that we have in Canada, which already has two mutations which bring us closer to an influenza virus capable of infecting humans. We are two mutations away from having a virus that would be able to pass easily between human beings and which could, in fact, be potentially worse than COVID.”
While the risk to human health from infected ostriches is currently considered low, the expert cautioned that it is “not zero.” “We shouldn’t panic, but it’s still not nothing,” they qualified.
Global Spread and Monitoring Efforts
The National Institute of Public Health of Quebec (INSPQ) has been closely monitoring the situation since 2022, tracking the virulent spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus (HPAI H5N1) of clade 2.3.4.4ba, which has impacted over 100 countries since 2020.
“The problem is that this is a pandemic,” explained the biosafety expert. “There are more than 100 countries where the virus is widespread among all kinds of domestic and wild animals.”
Despite the widespread presence of avian influenza subtypes – including H5N1 – infections in humans remain rare. Typically, human cases occur when individuals have direct contact with infected birds, either alive or deceased, and subsequently touch their mucous membranes without proper hygiene.
The Potential for a New Pandemic
Although a pandemic is currently considered improbable, the possibility of the virus evolving to facilitate human-to-human transmission remains a significant concern. The expert painted a stark picture of the potential consequences, stating, “If [H5N1] could have the ability to pass easily between human beings, obviously the disaster scenario… With that, we would miss COVID.”
The situation underscores the importance of continued vigilance and proactive monitoring of the virus’s evolution. While current risks are assessed as low, the potential for a more dangerous strain to emerge demands ongoing attention from public health officials and researchers worldwide.
