2024-08-28 01:59:29
On Sunday morning, Israel’s army and Hezbollah attacked each other on a large scale. However, a major war is not to be expected, says an expert.
For a good month, observers have been wondering whether Iran and its allies will launch a major attack on Israel. Tehran in particular had repeatedly threatened retaliation after high-ranking Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr was killed in an Israeli air strike in Beirut at the end of July and Hamas foreign chief Ismail Haniya was killed in Tehran a few hours later. Israel has never claimed responsibility for killing Haniya. And there was no attack on the country for weeks.
Now the country’s enemies took revenge: the Hezbollah militia, allied with Iran, had apparently planned a large-scale rocket attack against Israel with thousands of missiles. But the Israeli army apparently got there first. According to the army, around 100 fighter jets took off early on Sunday morning and destroyed thousands of Hezbollah launchers in southern Lebanon. Israel spoke of a preemptive strike. A little later, the militia nevertheless fired 320 rockets towards Israel, according to its own statements. Israeli media reported more than 200 rockets and around 20 drones. Read more about the attacks here.
The mutual attacks on Sunday morning have once again increased concerns about a conflagration in the region. Iran’s announced reaction is still pending. But these concerns may not reflect the actual situation in the Middle East. Middle East expert Ali Fathollah-Nejad said in an interview with t-online: “Neither Israel nor Hezbollah nor Iran are currently interested in a major war.” So are the concerns about an escalation completely unfounded?
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“Given the mutual attacks between Israel and Hezbollah, we must now wait and see what happens in the coming hours and days,” says the founder and director of the Center for Middle East and Global Order (CMEG). In addition to the exchange of military hostilities, the conflict is also taking place elsewhere: “There is currently a propaganda war raging between the two sides,” says Fathollah-Nejad.
This can also be seen in the fact that both Hezbollah and Israel speak of “successful” actions. “The speech by Hezbollah leader Nasrallah is particularly interesting in that he too wants to put his stamp on the information war,” said Fathollah-Nejad.
In keeping with this, Hezbollah released a propaganda video on Sunday that highlighted the targets of its attack. These were several military bases. However, none of them were hit, the Israeli army said. However, several civilian buildings in northern Israel were apparently damaged, as pictures show. There are also reports that further attacks on Israel are expected – most likely from Yemen, where the Huthi rebels, who are also supported by Iran, are based.
Since the Gaza war between Israel and the Islamist Hamas began more than ten months ago, the Hezbollah militia from Lebanon, which is allied with Hamas, has been shelling targets in northern Israel almost every day. The Israeli military, in turn, regularly attacks targets in the neighboring country.
Fathollah-Nejad speaks of “a controlled escalation” of the situation in the region. Neither of the conflicting parties is interested in a major war. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz also stated on Sunday that his country is not interested in such an escalation. “Therefore, an attack by Iran on Israel, as expected by many sides, is unlikely to happen,” says Fathollah-Nejad.
“In the centers of power in Iran, it has been agreed that such an attack would be counterproductive,” the expert continues. There is a lot of talk in Tehran of a “Netanyahu trap”: Iran expects that an attack on Israel would bring the USA into action. In fact, in recent weeks the USA has moved naval units closer to the Middle East, reports the “New York Times”. According to the report, two aircraft carrier groups and a submarine are located near the Gulf of Oman.