DECRYPTION – With the age pyramid expected in 2040, social protection would have 100 billion more expenditure and 20 billion less revenue.
Nothing is more predictable than demographics. The aging of the French population will continue mechanically over the next two decades, under the effect of the increase in life expectancy and the aging of the large baby-boom generations. While there were three 20-year-olds for every senior over 60 in 1980, this ratio fell to 2.6 in 2000 then to 1.9 in 2020 and should be less than 1.5 in 2040.
This demographic change will exert very strong pressure on the social accounts. The impact would be “around 5 points of GDP in 2040”, reveals a study by France Strategy. Clearly, this means that if the population structure in 2019 had been that expected for 2040, social protection (retirement, health, dependency, etc.) would have cost an additional 100 billion euros. On a bill that already amounts to 703 billion euros! In addition, revenues would have been 20 billion euros lower, because…
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