Reykjavik is weighing a renewed bid for membership in the European Union, a move spurred by shifting geopolitical currents and, surprisingly, attention from Washington. The possibility of re-entering EU discussions comes after a period of relative disinterest, following Iceland’s initial application in 2009 during the height of the global financial crisis and subsequent freeze of negotiations in 2013. Now, concerns over potential economic pressure from the United States, coupled with comments from former President Donald Trump, appear to be accelerating the process. The Icelandic parliament is expected to announce a date for a vote on EU membership within the coming weeks, according to sources cited by Politico.
The renewed interest in EU membership isn’t happening in isolation. Brussels is likewise considering a fast-track path for Ukraine’s potential accession, potentially as early as next year, while Montenegro recently concluded another stage of its negotiations in January. This broader context of EU expansion, driven by security concerns and a desire for greater unity in a world of competing influences, is providing a backdrop for Iceland’s reconsideration. EU Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kosová, emphasized this shift, stating, “The discussion on enlargement is changing. It is increasingly about security, about belonging, and about preserving our ability to act in a world of competing spheres of influence. This concerns all Europeans.”
A History of Hesitation and Shifting Geopolitics
Iceland initially applied for EU membership in 2009, a period marked by a severe economic crisis that saw the collapse of all three of the nation’s major commercial banks. However, as the Icelandic economy began to recover rapidly in the following years, the government froze negotiations in December 2013, fearing potential instability within the Eurozone. At the time of the freeze, Iceland had completed 11 of 33 negotiating chapters. Montenegro, currently the most advanced candidate country, has only recently surpassed that milestone. The decision to pause the process reflected a pragmatic assessment of Iceland’s economic situation at the time, but the geopolitical landscape has changed significantly in the intervening decade.
Today, Iceland occupies a strategically important location in the North Atlantic, lacking a standing army and relying on its membership in NATO and a bilateral defense agreement with the United States, established in 1951. This reliance on external security arrangements, combined with recent rhetoric from Washington, is fueling the debate over EU membership. The discussion about potentially resuming accession talks began before Donald Trump’s return to office, but has gained urgency in recent months.
Trump’s Comments and the Question of Sovereignty
Adding fuel to the fire was a remark made by Billy Long, Trump’s nominee for ambassador to Iceland, who jokingly suggested that the country could develop into the 52nd state of the United States, with himself as governor. While intended as a jest, the comment reportedly raised concerns in Reykjavik. As one source familiar with the situation told reporters, “I think the fact that Donald Trump mentioned Iceland four times in his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos certainly got people’s attention. In a small country, that must have caused some worry.”
The attention from Washington, whether serious or playful, has prompted a reassessment of Iceland’s strategic position. The possibility of increased economic pressure from the U.S., including the imposition of tariffs, has also been cited as a factor driving the renewed interest in EU membership. While specific details of potential tariffs weren’t outlined in the source material, the broader context suggests a concern about Iceland’s economic vulnerability.
The Thorny Issue of Fishing Rights
The path to EU membership for Iceland is not without obstacles. The most significant potential hurdle remains fishing rights, a crucial industry for the Icelandic economy and a major point of contention during previous negotiations. Historically, disputes over fishing quotas have led to tensions with neighboring countries, most notably the “Cod Wars” between Iceland and the United Kingdom in the 1950s and 70s. During Iceland’s previous accession talks, the UK raised concerns about the amount of mackerel caught by Icelandic fishing vessels, leading to trade sanctions from the EU.
However, a key dynamic has shifted since those earlier negotiations: Brexit. The departure of the United Kingdom from the EU has altered the relationship between Iceland and the bloc regarding fisheries. The long-standing, often fraught, relationship between Iceland and the UK over fishing rights is now a different equation with the UK outside of the EU framework.
If Icelandic lawmakers vote in favor of EU membership in the upcoming referendum, the country could potentially join the bloc sooner than any other candidate nation. The next step will be the announcement of a date for that parliamentary vote, expected within weeks. The outcome of that vote will be a significant indicator of Iceland’s future direction and its place within the evolving European security landscape.
The discussion surrounding Iceland’s potential EU membership underscores a broader trend: the increasing importance of security and belonging in the context of a fragmented geopolitical world. As Commissioner Kosová noted, the conversation is shifting towards “preserving our ability to act in a world of competing spheres of influence.”
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