It is a certainty: the 5 Star Movement (M5S) will not repeat the feat of 2018, when it obtained 32.6% of the vote. “Born in 2009, it represented the novelty then, an alternative to traditional parties capable of responding to the social and economic dissatisfaction of many Italians”, recalls Gianfranco Pasquino, emeritus professor of political science at the University of Bologna.
Published two weeks before the September 25 election, before the strict “electoral silence”, the latest polls credit the M5S with around 14% of voting intentions. His four years in power (with 225 deputies and 111 senators) have tested him. And eroded.
Its core target: the dissatisfied, the disappointed
In 2018, not having enough of a majority to govern alone, he first allied himself with the League of Matteo Salvini (anti-immigration): first defections in his ranks. In 2019, he embarked with the Democratic Party (PD, center / center left): new hemorrhage. From the beginning of 2021, he participates in the grand coalition led by Mario Draghi. Voters, parliamentarians, political scientists, journalists… No one is able to pin down the identity of the movement anymore. In June 2022, its former leader, Luigi Di Maio, slams the door with 71 parliamentarians.
Against all expectations, the M5S is regaining a certain aura following the choice of its leader, Giuseppe Conte, to oppose the policy of Mario Draghi (in particular on the sending of arms to Ukraine and the financing of a waste incinerator in Rome). Under his blows and those of a part of the right which wants to go to the elections, the government falls in July 2022.
The M5S then switches back to opposition. “Somewhere, it becomes anti-system again and finds its core target: the dissatisfied, the disappointed”, explains Gianfranco Pasquino. The figure of Giuseppe Conte, recognized for having led the country during the pandemic, also weighs. “It was he who asked for and obtained the billions from the European Union’s recovery plan, not Draghi! »
Ahead of the League in the polls
The party campaigns by saying it is opposed to military spending, new oil and gas drilling and unpaid internships. He campaigns for the strengthening of the citizenship income (established in 2019 on the initiative of the M5S) and the minimum wage, the attribution of citizenship to foreign children who have completed studies in Italy…
“The M5S program is positioned more to the left than the left wing of the PD and wants to conquer its voters”, analyzes the historian and sociologist Marco Revelli. He draws a brief portrait of those “who saymore likely to vote for Conte than for the M5S” : “A majority of workers, unemployed and above all recipients of citizenship income, in the South but also in cities like Turin. »
Thanks to this support and that of voters who no longer trust the historic parties, the Movimento could overtake Matteo Salvini’s League (at 12% in the latest polls). It would thus represent the third political force in the country – far, however, behind Fratelli d’Italia (25%) and the PD (21%).
What will be his strategy next? “Coordinate with the PD, to have a chance to weigh in the opposition”, wishes Gianfranco Pasquino. “Betting on the gigantic difficulties that the future right-wing coalition in government will not fail to face. And take advantage of it to grow again, while the traditional parties will tear themselves apart, ” Marcus Revelli believes.