2024-01-31 15:05:42
HEALTH – The increase in deaths among middle-aged Britons threatens the profits of insurers Aviva and Legal & General, a post-Covid problem singled out by the Office of National Statistics.
An unusual rise in deaths among middle-aged Britons could cut profits at insurers Aviva Plc and Legal & General Group, according to a rapport from Bloomberg Intelligence. Analysis of data from the Office for National Statistics revealed that the mortality rate of 40-44 year olds deteriorated the most in the first half of 2023. The number of deaths by age per 100,000 people increased by 6% during this period, after two years of decline.
28,000 additional deaths in the first six months of 2023
The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) has calculated that there were 44,255 additional deaths recorded in the UK in 2022, across all ages, compared to the five-year average (excluding 2020). This trend continued in 2023 with 28,024 additional deaths recorded in the first six months of the year compared to expectations.
An article published in the medical journal The Lancet reports that the effects of Covid infections, as well as pressures on the National Health Service (NHS) in managing acute and chronic illnesses, could be one reason. However, the authors add that it is still too early to be sure, but this trend is also observed in many other countries.
The study also states that deaths involving cardiovascular disease were 33% higher than expected, while deaths involving ischemic heart disease were 44% higher, cerebrovascular disease 40% higher and heart failure 39% higher. high. Even if the causes of deaths can be multifactorial, and if the evolution of mortality data must be interpreted with great caution, we cannot exclude that the anti-Covid vaccination campaign is also part of the causes of the increase in deaths. , cardiovascular accidents being among the most reported side effects in pharmacovigilance.
An impact on life insurance pricing
This recent increase in deaths is unusual enough to have provoked debate in Parliament. While former health minister Maria Caulfield said coronary heart disease had contributed to excess mortality in England over the past year, she did not directly answer a question about whether further investigation into the cause of excess deaths would be conducted.
On the insurers’ side, it’s a headache. Insurers’ savings and pensions products act as a natural hedge against long-term changes in mortality trends, but a sustained rise in deaths in the 40-44 age group would impact the pricing of all products life insurance.
“If the trend continues, this could reduce temporary insurance profits at market leaders Legal & General and Aviva”, said Business Intelligence analysts Kevin Ryan and Juliet Abiola. We can therefore expect that this drop in insurers’ profits will be passed on in one way or another to their customers, and therefore the citizen…
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