India prepares to “dominate the world”

2023-09-24 00:26:22

Now that the dragon’s legs are shaking, the elephant takes off and gallops. While China enters a logical stage of economic slowdown, accentuated in the geopolitical field by the growing rivalry with the West, India makes agreements with countries of all ideologies and begins to materialize the eternal promise of becoming a superpower. «You cannot talk about the emergence of India but about its resurgence. Because it is an ancient civilization that has been key in the development of Humanity, both on the political level, in which it launched democracy before the Greeks, and on the economic and social level. In fact, the first contact that the British had with the Mughal empire was from a position of inferiority,” points out Rubén Campos, Project Coordinator of the Club of Madrid, which brings together more than a hundred former heads of state.

Call me Bharat, not India

India wants to recover the prominent place it occupied for centuries and that, as also happened with China, the West has ignored in a historical narrative weighed down by its Eurocentric vision of the world. “Industrialization caused a turnaround in the global economy and the decline of India, but now it is playing its cards again and emerging in the digital world to sustain its new boom,” says Campos. And the Government wants this resurrection to be reflected even in its official name, which is why Prime Minister Narendra Modi has proposed stopping using India and replacing it with Bharat, the name in Sanskrit.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Reuters

“It is logical. Names of cities that the British changed have also been recovered. Like Chennai, which they nicknamed Madras; or Kolkata, which they renamed Calcutta. It is a way to create one’s own identity, leaving colonialism behind,” says Deepti Golani, a businesswoman in the textile sector living in Barcelona, ​​where she trains executives to do business in India.

In any case, the country’s final objective transcends the anecdotal and embraces an ambition unknown until now. Modi made this clear last year on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of independence from the United Kingdom, when he called for Indians to set out to “dominate the world.”

Will India become a superpower?

— Zigor Aldama 齐戈 (@zigoraldama) September 22, 2023

It’s not something that’s going to happen overnight. And there are many who predict that it will never happen. Mario López Areu, professor of International Relations at the Pontifical University of Comillas, is one of them. “It will not reach the category of superpower like the United States or China, it will remain one step below,” he advances, pointing out that the most populated country in the world as of this year continues to have one of the largest pockets of poverty and illiteracy in the world. planet.

Flirt with everyone, but don’t get married

But, although it is far from starring in an economic miracle like the Chinese one, India does have some clear advantages over the neighboring giant. The most relevant is its political system: if China is the main dictatorship on the planet and the flag of the political bloc heir to the Soviet Union, India is the largest democracy in the world and a giant that leads the Non-Aligned Movement. “It will never try to be a dominant power like China,” says Campos.

1,431 million

of people live in India, a number that already exceeds that of the Chinese population. Furthermore, the country has a very young population that, yes, has little training.

This allows him to play all his cards: he buys Russian weapons – worth 13 billion dollars in the last five years – and takes over the gas that Putin fails to sell to the West while negotiating military and nuclear cooperation treaties with the United States; It belongs to the select club of the main emerging states – the BRICS – and to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization – led by China –, without giving up a position in the Quad Alliance – along with the American superpower, Australia and Japan; and is capable of organizing one of the most successful meetings of the G-20, and for Joe Biden to rub shoulders with the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov.

Narendra Modi rubs shoulders with leaders of all ideologies. Reuters / EP / EFE

“The Government’s priority is to maintain the strategic autonomy of the country,” adds López Areu. In this way, while the great project of the New Silk Road, which President Xi Jinping designed to structure the world to China’s liking, now provokes more suspicion than support, Modi marks something significant with his slogan for the summit of the most powerful countries in the world: ‘One planet, one family, one future’.

The giant that grows the most

This conciliatory attitude is giving good results: India is growing more than China. Specifically, S&P predicts that it will be the G-20 country that will increase its GDP the most this year – after having done so by 9.1% and 7.2% in fiscal years 2021 and 2022 –, and in the second quarter It has already surpassed its neighbor by one and a half points – 6.3% compared to 7.8%. Gandhi’s country is already surpassing Mao’s in demographic weight, it is beginning to take away foreign investment – ​​last year it received a record of 85 billion dollars – and it has joined the conquest of space with the surprising success of the probe sent to the south pole of the moon, a sign of the emphasis that New Delhi places on scientific development.

Restaurant with robotic waiters in Bengaluru. AFP

India has thus opened a path that, according to Goldman Sachs projections, will make it the second world power in 2075, with a GDP close to doubling that of the euro zone, one trillion dollars higher than that of the United States, and 4, 5 below that of China. «India has made greater progress in innovation and technology than many believe. Yes, it has a demographic advantage, but that is not going to be the only element that boosts its GDP. R&D and labor productivity are going to be increasingly relevant in this regard,” says the American investment bank.

$2,389

This is what Indian citizens earn on average. This is a very low figure, but it multiplies by six what they pocketed at the beginning of the 21st century.

7.8% growth rate

registered by India in the second quarter of the year, thus drawing an upward progression that could make it the G20 country that is growing the most.

Golani agrees, and points out that a good example of this is how the country has gone from seeking capital with ‘Make in India’, a Modi project to attract multinationals by positioning itself as a manufacturing alternative to China, to doing so with ‘Made for India’, with the power of the Indian consumer as the hook. «Now all brands want to sell there. Because the middle class grows and gains purchasing power,” he points out, emphasizing that, in addition, the Asian elephant has the legal security and the rule of law that the dragon lacks.

Inside an Intex mobile phone factory in Bengaluru. Zigor Aldama

Colossal social challenges

But López Areu emphasizes that it is still far from having quality infrastructure and the critical mass of qualified labor in China. “40% of the fruit produced in India rots before reaching the market due to these deficiencies,” he gives as an example. «In addition, the fact of being a democracy requires greater sensitivity to the needs of the population and reduces efficiency compared to the Chinese authoritarian model. There is also no single Indian market and many of the international regulations have not been adopted,” analyzes the teacher.

Indian social diversity is a favorable point for its development, but it also creates ethical and religious tensions. EFE

Golani recognizes that his country still has a long way to go to reduce the gender gap and “give security to women”, prevent youth from becoming frustrated and seeking revolution, and eradicating corruption “that is still very widespread.” However, he sees frenetic changes moving in the right direction. «Earlier it took ten hours to reach Jaipur from Delhi. Now it is 3.5 hours by highway. And the illiterate woman who sells vegetables on the street already charges you with a QR code,” she comments, convinced that the West is short-sighted when it comes to judging what is happening in her country.

He does recognize that the international panorama will be key to determining India’s success on its path to becoming a superpower: “It will have to resolve the conflicts with Pakistan and China.” The most relevant is the one that pits it against its gigantic communist neighbor. “India seeks peaceful coexistence, but the unknown is how much it will be able to maintain autonomy if China becomes more belligerent,” argues Campos. López Areu agrees and emphasizes that India will face increasing pressure to take sides: “It is going to be a fundamental power in the Indo-Pacific because the United States and Europe are going to need it to act as China’s police.” Of course, as long as there is peace, India can continue making money and strengthening its muscles.

Electric cars from the Indian giant Tata. Reuters

Roadmap of a superpower in the making

Like many other developing countries, India has attracted foreign investment by exploiting its cheap labor in low value-added sectors, such as textiles. In this way, they have acquired knowledge to train workers and strengthen their own companies. In parallel, the country has created a small but growing elite, enlightened in the digital tools that have allowed the creation of large local technological multinationals. The command of English has also attracted foreigners. With a growing middle class, both in terms of the number of those who belong to it and their purchasing power, India is also an increasingly interesting local market for companies from around the world, from McDonald’s to Apple. The country’s priority is to maintain its strategic autonomy, which allows it to acquire weapons and fuel from Russia without giving up closing defense agreements with the United States or importing Western nuclear technology.