Western pressure is mounting on New Delhi. On March 21, Joe Biden judged India’s response “hesitant” against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A barely veiled criticism of the neutrality displayed by New Delhi, which has been trying to spare its opposing partners since the start of the war.
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In recent votes at the United Nations, India refrained from condemning Moscow, its powerful ally since the Cold War and main arms supplier. To defuse the conflict, the government of Narendra Modi, which has already spoken with Presidents Putin and Zelensky, recommends “the way of dialogue and diplomacy”. Between its privileged links with Moscow and the Western bloc, New Delhi thus finds itself in an uncomfortable position.
Strategic pragmatism
India’s split diplomacy is nothing new, however. Anchored in a principle of “non-alignment”, India’s strategic pragmatism enables it to deal with various interlocutors. The alliances, with Moscow on the one hand and with the United States and Europe on the other hand, like its partners in the Indo-Pacific basin, help it to counter its two great enemies: China, its expansionist rival, which dangerously masses its soldiers on its Himalayan border, and Pakistan, its enemy brother, still bristling over the claim of Kashmir, one of the most militarized regions in the world.
“India needs the United States to meet challenges in the maritime domain, and Russia to meet those on the continental shelf”, writes Nandan Unnikrishnan of the Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based think tank. Fearing that Russia is getting closer to China and Pakistan, India is now denying criticism of Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.
Dependence on Russian weapons
New Delhi is also hostage to its dependence on Russian arms, which still represents almost half of its military imports, even if India has been trying to diversify its sources of supply for several years. Its national security is largely dependent on Russia for the maintenance of combat aircraft and for the installation of S-400 missiles, an anti-aircraft defense system intended to protect its Himalayan front.
For India, the question of territorial sovereignty is particularly burning in this area, where Chinese soldiers are nibbling at the common border and increasing incursions on the Indian side. Faced with these tensions, New Delhi remains diplomatically isolated. “US President Joe Biden has never said a word about the Chinese aggression against India, which is in its 23rd monthunderlines Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the Center for Policy Research, in New Delhi. In fact, not a single Western head of state has urged Beijing to withdraw its 200,000 troops massed on the Himalayan border, in violation of bilateral agreements. And yet, the Western bloc is asking India to be on its side in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine. » Two weights, two measures ?
India is also negotiating with Moscow for the purchase of crude oil at a reduced price, in order to meet its gigantic needs. “If the European Union can continue to import Russian oil and gas while launching an economic war against Russia, a neutral India has every right to do so at a reduced price,” dear Brahma Chellaney.
Finally, in the face of Western sanctions, India is seeking to continue its trade with Russia through transactions in rubles and rupees, in order to avoid the American dollar. These are all initiatives that contribute to the movement of repositioning caused on a planetary scale by the war in Ukraine.