2023-09-28 16:39:12
Central banks have made it clear: rates will remain high for longer. A perspective that in recent days has put pressure on the debt markets, triggering the profitability of bonds, which indicates what investors demand from States to buy the debt they issue in the market.
In the case of the ten-year Spanish bond, the yield exceeded the 4% barrier on Thursday for the first time since the end of 2013, after an almost unstoppable climb, accelerated after the ECB’s latest rate hike.
To give you an idea, at the beginning of 2022 the profitability barely exceeded 0.6%. This represents a problem for the cost of financing the State. And this same Thursday, the Tax Authority (Airef) recalled how the average cost of new Treasury issues stood at 3.33% in August, from the minimum set in 2021 at -0.04%. This is a value that has not been seen since 2011 and the prospect of the situation continuing will cause, according to their calculations, the expense for interest payments to rise to 2.9% of GDP in 2026, from 2.9% of GDP. 3% from 2022.
In any case, and after the review of the GDP by the INE, the Airef has improved its estimates for the Spanish public debt. Specifically, the organization now estimates that the ratio will be between 108% and 109% of GDP this year, from the 110.1% previously forecast and also improving the Government’s latest projections.
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