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Apple Poised to Overtake Samsung as top Smartphone Vendor in 2025
Apple is projected to become the world’s leading smartphone vendor in 2025,ending Samsung’s 14-year reign at the top of the market. New analysis suggests a notable shift in the global smartphone landscape, driven by strong iPhone demand and a maturing upgrade cycle.
A Changing of the Guard
For nearly a decade and a half, Samsung has dominated global smartphone sales. Though, analysts at Counterpoint Research, via The Verge, predict that Apple will seize the lead in 2025, capturing an estimated 19.4% of the market share. This would place Apple just ahead of Samsung, which is expected to hold 18.4% of the market, based on projected sales of 235 million phones. the industry is expected to see a 3.3% year-on-year increase in sales,fueled in part by Apple’s anticipated performance.
Did you know? – Samsung has been the top smartphone vendor for 14 years, a streak that’s about to end. Apple’s projected rise is a major shakeup in the industry, driven by strong iPhone sales and a changing upgrade cycle.
iPhone 17 Demand Fuels Growth
A key factor in Apple’s projected success is unexpectedly robust demand for the iPhone 17 series. Counterpoint data indicates that Apple sold 12% more units of the iPhone 17 and iPhone Air models compared to the iPhone 16 lineup during the same period last year, even accounting for speculation of weaker sales for the iPhone Air. This demonstrates a continued appetite for Apple’s flagship devices.
Pro tip: – Consider the iPhone 17’s success a sign of the times. Strong sales of the iPhone 17 series, including the iPhone Air, are a key driver of Apple’s projected market dominance. This suggests a continued consumer preference for Apple’s devices.
upgrade Cycle and Secondary Market Impact
The shift isn’t solely attributable to new device sales. According to Counterpoint’s Yang Wang,”Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase.” this natural replacement cycle is being further amplified by a thriving secondary market. Between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025,an estimated 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold,creating a ample pool of potential customers ready to upgrade to the latest models.
Reader question: – How do you think the secondary market impacts the overall smartphone market? Dose it make it easier or harder for companies like Apple and Samsung to maintain their market share? Share your thoughts.
Moreover, favorable economic conditions, including lower-than-expected tariffs, are also contributing to the positive outlook for iPhone sales. Counterpoint analysts believe Apple could maintain its leading position through 2029, presenting a significant challenge to Samsung.
Samsung Remains a Force, Especially in Emerging Markets
While Samsung is expected to relinquish the top spot, the company is still experiencing sales growth, particularly in emerging and less developed markets. However,this growth is not anticipated to be sufficient to overtake Apple,at least according to the latest data from Counterpoint,which is based on details gathered from the supply chain and retail partners.
Future Innovations on the Horizon
The report also lends credence to rumors surrounding Apple’s future product roadmap. Speculation suggests the company is developing both an iPhone 17e and a foldable iPhone, potentially launching in 2026. Additionally, Apple may adjust its iPhone launch schedule in 20
