2024-04-18 06:32:00
After a massive drone attack of Iran, Israel would like retaliation. “They must be as nervous as they were for us,” said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Iran attacked Israel, for the first time directly from its territory, on Sunday night (04/14/2024), in response to an alleged Israeli missile attack against the Iranian embassy building in the Syrian capital, Damascus. Several high-ranking members of the Revolutionary Guard died there. Iran and its allies blame Israel for the attack. Israel has not commented on the matter.
Now, Iran warns that the slightest action by Israel against “Iran’s interests” will result in a “harsh, comprehensive and painful reaction”.
United States of America and the EU They try to exert a moderate influence on Israel. But who has influence over Iran and could prevent further escalation, after a possible retaliatory attack by Israel?
Qatar
According to the Office of the Presidency of Iran, the President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, called on the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad al Thani, on the phone on Tuesday (04/16/2024). Iran and Qatar have close diplomatic relations.
Between 2017 and 2021, Qatar got isolated in the Arab world. Saudi Arabia has accused the emirate of, among other things, of supporting terrorist groups in the region. Iran and Qatar support the terrorist organization Hamas.
With the permission of the Government of Israel, Qatar is one of the main donors of humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip and is considered an important mediator between Israel and Hamas. Mediated by Qatar, Israel and Hamas agreed to a short ceasefire and prisoner exchange in November 2023.
Oman
The sultanate played a vital role as a mediator between Iran and the United States.
Without Oman, there would be no idea of the agreements reached in the negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program in the last twenty years. The country is also campaigning for the release of American and European prisoners in Iran.
he New York Times reported that the US Government has been seeking dialogue with the Iranian authorities through Oman and Switzerland since last weekend, since the United States and Iran do not have diplomatic relations.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is a historical enemy of Iran and the United States, and it is also interested in ensuring that the situation does not get worse, because the country depends on oil exports, which would make a war going on amount at risk.
Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran were normalized thanks to China’s intervention in 2023. The two countries again exchanged ambassadors, increased trade and even discussed defense cooperation.
However, because of its history, Saudi Arabia cannot directly influence Iran, but relies on an indirect strategy: Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan bin Abdulah recommends China as a mediator. His country has high expectations and he hopes that the Asian country will play an active and important role in bringing the threatening situation in the Middle East back to normal.
China
Beijing says it wants to avoid further escalation in the Middle East. China is Iran’s most important trading partner. The two countries also cooperate militarily. In a telephone conversation with his Iranian counterpart on Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on Iran to show restraint.
Wang also confirmed that China, as a power with veto power in the UN Security Council, condemned the missile attack on the Iranian embassy building in Damascus. However, within the UN body, it was impossible to reach an agreement on this sentence.
“China does not want the situation in the Middle East to get out of control. The country already has rising transport costs and energy supply risks are increasing significantly,” said James Dorsey, a political scientist at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, to the local newspaper Zaobao.
However, China does not have communication channels with Tel Aviv, Dorsey said: “The only thing China can do is to appeal to Israel, together with the international community, to avoid escalation and respond with restraint.”
Russia and Iran have expanded their cooperation. Pictured: Vladimir Putin (c) and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (d). Image: Sergei Bobylyov/AFP/Getty Images
Russia
Russia has traditionally had good political relations with all the actors involved: Israel, Palestinian groups, Saudi Arabia and Iran. The country is considered a close friend of Iran. Under US sanctions, Tehran and Moscow have expanded their cooperation. Iran supplies drones to the Russian Army, which uses them against Ukraine.
But, growing tensions between Iran and Israel are diverting attention from the war in Ukraine. Is Russia really interested in reducing tensions in the Middle East?
“Anything that leads to a rise in energy prices, especially oil, is beneficial for Russia, at least in the short term and even in the medium term,” said David Sharp, an Israeli military expert, in an interview with DW. “But if Iran were involved in a major war and a war was waged against Iran, in theory it would be possible to restrict Iran’s supply of arms to Russia,” he suggested.
Moscow called for restraint from Israel and Iran. The Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, Nikolai Patrushev, emphasized on Monday (04/15/2024), in a conversation with the head of the National Security Council of Israel, Zachi Ha Negbi, that there was a need for “reflection on all sides. of the conflict in the Middle East, to avoid escalation.
Turkish
Türkiye has supported the Palestinian position since the early days of the conflict in the Middle East. Last week, Ankara even announced economic sanctions against Israel. The Turkish government also fears more tension and violence between Iran and Israel. And he asked both sides to exercise restraint.
“Unlike other countries in the region such as Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia, Turkey has a long land border with Iran,” said Gülru Gezer, a diplomat and foreign policy director at the Turkish Economic Policy Research Foundation (TEPAV). “Instability in neighboring Iran could have serious consequences for Turkey, especially in terms of migration from Iran. Unfortunately, Turkey has already been forced to experience this with the wars in Syria and Iraq.”
(rmr/rml)
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