Iran Attacks: Khamenei Killed, Leadership Decimated – US & Israel’s ‘Epic Fury’

The U.S. and Israeli operations over the weekend against Iran were not surprising, but the scale and speed of their impact has been shocking. The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead. Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of Iran’s Defense Council, was also killed, as was the Chief of the Iranian Armed Forces, Abdolrahim Mousavi. Also notable, the Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Mohammed Pakpour, was also killed.

Many more deaths could be cited, but all to say that in the first few days of what the United States calls “Operation Epic Fury,” and Israel calls “Operation Roaring Lion,” Iran’s leadership has been decimated, and the Iranian Navy is being destroyed. What comes next is uncertain.

Max Meizlish – Research Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD)

“The U.S. and Israel struck at the heart of a regime that terrorized its people for decades, bankrolled terrorism across the Middle East, and treated liberal democracy as an existential threat,” Max Meizlish, Research Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) told Agenda Pública.

“German Chancellor [Friedrich] Merz got it right when he said “this is not the moment to lecture our allies, but to stand together in unity,” and more European leaders should find the clarity to say the same,” Meizlish added.

“The European Union itself designated the IRGC — one of the deadliest and most repressive terrorist organizations in modern history — as a terrorist group. You don’t do that and then treat military action against it as morally equivalent to the threat it posed. The strikes should be celebrated, not second-guessed,” Meizlish concluded.

The role of the U.S. Congress

Lester Munson – Member of the Advisory Board of the National Security Institute at George Mason University’s Antonin Scalia School of Law

Here in the United States, the U.S. Congress is looking for answers and details on what led to the U.S. attack and what comes next. “Both the [U.S.] House [of Representatives] and [the U.S.] Senate are likely to vote this week on Iran-related resolutions,” Lester Munson, former Republican Staff Director for the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee from 2013 to 2015 – during the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiations and approval process – told Agenda Pública.

“The majority vote in each body could be adversarial to the Trump administration, in that Congress will vote to say that Congress should be allowed to decide whether force is used against Iran,” said Munson, who is a member of the Advisory Board of the National Security Institute at George Mason University’s Antonin Scalia School of Law.

As for what comes next, Munson says that, “Trump wants to keep maximum flexibility. I would not be surprised if he worked out a deal with new head Ayatollah. This “Persian Delcy [Rodríguez]” will be the key to the relationship moving forward.”

European perspectives on the impact of the attacks on Iran

Since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran began, the United Kingdom has announced that it will allow the United States to use British bases for defensive strikes. This marks the first major publicly known instance of active European military support for U.S. attacks on Iran.

“There are no illusions regarding Iranian activities and the concerns relating to the Iranian nuclear program are legitimate. Yet there is a sense of surprise that the US would go for this”

“There are no illusions regarding Iranian activities and the concerns relating to the Iranian nuclear program are legitimate. Yet there is a sense of surprise that the US would go for this,” a European diplomatic official with in-depth knowledge on the topic told Agenda Pública.

“For a war of choice the goals seem vague and political. It is not immediately clear what would constitute a victory,” the European diplomatic official concluded.

Federico Steinberg – Prince of Asturias Distinguished Visiting Professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service

Considering the economic impacts of the attacks, Federico Steinberg, Ph.D., Prince of Asturias Distinguished Visiting Professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service told Agenda Pública, “The main economic threat for the Spanish economy is a persistent increase in energy prices that could substantially reduce growth prospects worldwide.”

Steinberg, who is also a Senior Fellow at the Elcano Royal Institute, added, “On top of that, increased uncertainty and the risk of escalation could freeze investment [by the European Union in the Middle East] and reduce growth prospects [for the EU] as well.“

A Continuation of President Trump’s First Term Priorities

Looking beyond the killing of Khamenei, some analysts see this as the beginning of a pattern for President Trump this year after the removal of Nicolas Maduro from office in January. However, it is worth noting that in President Trump’s first term he recognized the government of Juan Guaidó, in an attempt to delegitimize the Maduro regime in Venezuela. As for Iran, President Trump ordered the assassination of Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani, widely considered at the time to be the second-most powerful figure in Iran after the Supreme Leader.

“In short, this past weekend’s events are in many ways a continuation of President Trump’s foreign policy priorities in his first term in office”

Additionally, it is worth noting that the Abraham Accords which were signed in the closing days of President Trump’s first term, at face value, served to establish formal diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab states. However, these agreements also clearly served to increase cooperation between several key regional powers, as tensions with Iran rose.

In short, this past weekend’s events are in many ways a continuation of President Trump’s foreign policy priorities in his first term in office. The scale of U.S. kinetic action is new, the foreign policy goals are not.

The challenge ahead for Trump – and possibly the beginning of the end for the Iranian regime

Now, if the U.S. and Israel stop their strikes too soon, what’s left is an Iranian regime that has lost faith that negotiations are possible, and may be convinced that pursuing a nuclear weapon is the only way to achieve deterrence. On the other hand, if the strikes against Iran go on for too long, there may be full state collapse, and enduring instability for years. It is clear in their public statements that the Trump administration is mindful of all this and does not want a repeat of the U.S. war in Afghanistan, which was followed by years of nation building. The Trump administration clearly wants to end this conflict as quickly as possible in a manner that ensures Iran is no longer a regional threat with nuclear aspirations.

Ultimately, the issue of Iran as a regional threat to U.S. interests is one that successive U.S. presidents have dealt with since the administration of President Jimmy Carter. The Trump administration’s actions over the weekend may be the beginning of the end of the Iranian regime, but it is too soon to tell just how – and when – this conflict will end.