2023-10-22 10:15:08
Iran, which has long supported the rulers of Gaza and Hamasfinds himself in a dilemma while tries to manage the spiral of crisis caused by the war between Israel and Palestine, according to nine Iranian officials with direct knowledge of thinking within the clerical establishment surveyed by the Reuters Agency.
Standing aside in the face of a full invasion of Gaza by Israel would mean a significant setback in the Iranian strategy of regional predominance carried out for more than four decades, according to the people who asked to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the discussions in Tehran. However, any major attack against a US-backed Israel could take a heavy toll on Iran and trigger public anger against clerical rulers in a nation already mired in economic crisis, officials said, describing the various military, diplomatic and domestic priorities being weighed.
Three security officials said a consensus had been reached among Iran’s top decision-makers, for now: give their blessing to cross-border raids limited actions of his Lebanese group Hezbollah against Israeli military targets, more than 200 kilometers from Gaza, as well as against American targets by other allied groups in the region. But, at the same time, prevent any major escalation that would drag Iran itself into the conflict.
sign of weakness
But Iranian inaction on the ground could be perceived as a sign of weakness by those forces, which have been Tehran’s main weapon of influence in the region for decades, according to three officials. The same sources explained that it could also affect the position of Iran, which has long defended the Palestinian cause against Israel, a country it refuses to recognize and presents as an evil occupier.
“The Iranians are faced with the dilemma of whether they are going to send Hezbollah into the fight to try to save their armed arm in the Gaza Strip or perhaps they are going to let go of this arm and hand it over,” he said. Avi Melamed, former Israeli intelligence official and negotiator during the first and second intifadas. “This is where the Iranians are,” he added. “Calculating your risks.”
Strong rhetoric
“For Iran’s top leaders, especially the supreme leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei), the top priority is the survival of the Islamic Republic,” said a senior Iranian diplomat. “That is why Iranian authorities have used strong rhetoric against Israel since the attack began, but have refrained from direct military involvement, at least for now.”
Three senior Israeli security sources and a Western security source told Reuters that Israel did not want a direct confrontation with Tehran and that although the Iranians had trained and armed Hamas, there was no indication that they had prior knowledge of the October 7 attack. Khamenei, the supreme leader, denied that Iran was involved in the attack, although he praised the damage inflicted on Israel.
Israel’s response
Israeli and Western security sources opined that Israel sI would only attack Iran if it were attacked directly by Iranian forces from Iran, although they warned that the situation was volatile and that an attack on Israel by Hezbollah or Iranian proxies in Syria or Iraq that caused heavy casualties could change Israel’s approach, one of the Israeli sources added.
US officials have made clear that their goal is to prevent the conflict from spreading and deter others from attacking US interests, while keeping Washington’s options open. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby reiterated that Washington wanted to contain the conflict. “There is no intention to put American troops on the ground in combat,” he told reporters.
“Everyone is nervous”
Jon Alterman, a former State Department official who now heads the Middle East program at the CSIS think tank in Washington, thinks leaders Iranians would feel pressure to show tangible support, and not only rhetorically, to Hamas, but warned about the possibility of events ending up out of control. “Once you get into this environment, things happen and there are consequences that no one wanted,” he added. “Everyone is nervous.” A former senior official close to Iran’s top decision-makers says China’s role has further complicated matters.
The role of the Iranian people
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Meanwhile, the Iranian people could play a key role. Iran’s rulers cannot afford direct involvement in the conflict as they struggle to quell growing dissent in their country, fueled by economic problems and social restrictions, according to two separate officials. The country has seen months of unrest sparked by the death in custody of Masha Amini last year and persistent state repression.
The economic problems, caused mainly by crippling US sanctions and mismanagement, have led many Iranians to criticize the decades-long policy of using funds to expand the Islamic Republic’s influence in the Middle East. The slogan “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, I sacrifice my life for Iran” has become a signature chant in anti-government protests in Iran for years, underscoring the people’s frustration. “Iran’s nuanced position emphasizes the delicate balance it must maintain between regional interests and internal stability,” the former senior Iranian official said.
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