PARIS, January 26, 2026 – Donald Trump’s continued verbal and potential military threats against Tehran are fueling uncertainty across the middle East, exacerbating existing tensions and reshaping regional power dynamics.
A Shifting Landscape of Alliances
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The region is witnessing a complex realignment as key players navigate a volatile situation.
- Turkey and Saudi Arabia, both Sunni powers, are urging Washington to resist escalating regional chaos and pressure from Israel.
- The United Arab Emirates, while maintaining ties with the U.S., is increasingly engaging with Jerusalem, diverging from Riyadh’s approach.
- The United States,alongside France and the United Kingdom,is leveraging the figure of al-Charaa – a former jihadist now leading Syrian forces – to control oil-rich areas in northeastern syria,at the expense of Kurdish groups.
The Kurds, once again feeling betrayed, have seen their fifteen-year dream of a state between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers dashed. Their contributions to the Western coalition and the defeat of Daesh were seemingly forgotten as thousands of Islamic fighters held in Kurdish detention were hastily evacuated to Iraqi prisons, leading to escapes and a heightened risk of terrorist resurgence in Europe.
Both Iraq and Syria remain vulnerable to sectarian fragmentation, with the Baghdad government challenged by Iran-linked Shia militias that operate independently through their own economic networks.
Recomposing Forces
Paradoxically, amidst the turmoil, investment and reconstruction efforts in Syria and Gaza are becoming focal points for major players seeking to assert their ambitions. This is the premise behind Donald Trump’s unusual “Peace Council,” intended to raise $30 billion to create a new Riviera-like destination.
Did you know?– Turkey and Saudi Arabia share concerns about escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Did you know?– The UAE is strengthening ties with Israel despite its relationship with the U.S.
Did you know?– Al-Charaa, a former jihadist, is now a key figure in controlling Syrian oil resources.
Did you know?– Kurdish aspirations for a state have been thwarted, leading to security concerns.
Did you know?– China is actively purchasing oil from Iran, signaling strategic interests.
What has become of conventional diplomacy? The international community, the United Nations, and established multilateral tools seem increasingly outdated. What role is Moscow playing,as an ally of Tehran and a continued supporter of Damascus? And what is the agenda of Turkish President Erdoğan,who positions himself as a mediator?
Paris has welcomed the agreement between the Syrian president and the leader of the Kurdish forces. But do France and other European nations still wield notable influence in the region?
China is purchasing oil from Iran. What are its strategic goals? Donald Trump aims to compel Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions, seemingly without regard for the immense suffering of the Iranian population. Without a regime change, is compromise even possible? Are the United States ultimately the sole power capable of shaping the future of a Middle East it has profoundly destabilized?
Our Guests
Dorothée Schmid authored the chapter “Middle East: a region in forced transition” in Geopolitics and Geo-economics of the Contemporary World, edited by Guibourg delamotte and Cédric Tellenne, published by La Découverte in 2025.
Myriam Benraad recently released a revised and expanded edition of her book Jihad,the metamorphosis of a threat,published by Éditions du Cavalier bleu on January 22,2026.
Karim Emile Bitar contributed to an extensive interview titled “Breaking out of Lebanese ‘fatality'”, published in the journal Confluences Méditerranée in January 2025.
michel Duclos is the author of French Diplomacy, published in 2024 as part of the Alpha-Essai collection by Humensis, and also The Long Syrian Night, reissued in the same collection in 2022.
