WASHINGTON — As the conflict in Iran continues, a State Department cable revealed this week details a stark disconnect between Israel’s public calls for regime change and its private assessment of the likely outcome of such an uprising. While publicly urging Iranians to revolt against their government, Israeli officials have reportedly told U.S. Diplomats that any resulting protests would likely be met with brutal suppression, leading to a high number of casualties. This revelation raises questions about the motivations behind Israel’s public stance and the potential consequences of encouraging unrest in the region.
The cable, reviewed by The Washington Post and circulated within the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem on Friday, indicates that Israeli officials believe the Iranian government is “not cracking” and will “fight to the end.” Despite hopes from both U.S. And Israeli officials to “decapitate” the government and trigger its collapse, the assessment paints a grim picture for potential protesters. According to the cable, Israeli officials anticipate that “the people will get slaughtered” if Iranians were to stage widespread demonstrations, similar to those seen earlier this year.
The assessment regarding potential casualties echoes concerns raised by UN Special Rapporteur on Iran, Mai Sato, who reported around 5,000 deaths resulting from a government crackdown on protests as of January. Sato acknowledged the difficulty in obtaining a precise death toll due to biases from all sides, highlighting the challenges in accurately assessing the situation on the ground. The cable underscores a willingness to accept potential civilian deaths as a consequence of pursuing regime change, despite public appeals for Iranian citizens to rise up.
This isn’t the first time Israeli officials have publicly called for action against the Iranian government. On February 28, the first day of U.S. And Israeli bombardments, both President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued video addresses urging Iranians to take up arms against their government. Since then, the joint military operations have resulted in over 1,400 deaths and at least 18,500 injuries in Iran, according to Iranian health officials. The long-standing pattern of Israeli intelligence and military officials encouraging protests within Iran, coupled with decades of U.S. Involvement in Iranian politics, adds another layer of complexity to the current situation.
Internal Concerns vs. Public Rhetoric
The discrepancy between Israel’s public encouragement of an uprising and its private assessment of the likely outcome has drawn criticism. Trita Parsi, executive vice president for the Quincy Institute, stated on social media that the cable reveals a willingness to use the Iranian people as “cannon fodder” in the conflict with the Islamic Republic. Parsi argued that Israel’s actions are driven by its own interests, with little regard for the well-being of the Iranian population.
Iran analyst and Johns Hopkins University assistant professor Narges Bajoli told The Washington Post that the assessment would likely be viewed as a betrayal, exploiting Iranian lives for political gain. This sentiment reflects a broader concern that the pursuit of regime change is being prioritized over the safety and security of Iranian citizens. The situation is further complicated by the history of civilian casualties in conflicts involving Israel, both in Palestine and across the Middle East.
Broader Implications of Regime Change Efforts
The U.S. And Israel initiated the war against Iran last month with a stated goal of regime change. This objective was reflected in the coordinated messaging from both governments, urging Iranians to “take over your government” and “cast off the yoke of this murderous regime.” Yet, the internal assessment shared with U.S. Diplomats suggests a lack of confidence in the likelihood of a swift or peaceful transition. The cable indicates that Israeli officials believe the Iranian government will continue to resist, potentially leading to a prolonged and bloody conflict.
The Washington Post reported just hours ago that the goal of regime change is reflected in Israel’s military tactics. The ongoing bombardments and the encouragement of internal unrest suggest a strategy aimed at destabilizing the Iranian government, even at the risk of significant civilian casualties. This approach raises ethical questions about the responsibility of external actors in fueling conflict and the potential consequences for regional stability.
The Human Cost of Conflict
The conflict has already taken a significant toll on the Iranian population. Iranian health officials report over 1,400 deaths and 18,500 injuries since the start of the U.S. And Israeli bombardments. The UN’s earlier estimate of 5,000 deaths during earlier protests underscores the government’s willingness to use force to suppress dissent. The prospect of further unrest, coupled with the Israeli assessment that protesters would be “slaughtered,” paints a bleak picture for the future of Iran and its people.
The situation demands careful consideration of the potential consequences of pursuing regime change through military intervention and the encouragement of internal unrest. While the desire to address concerns about Iran’s nuclear program and regional policies is understandable, the human cost of such actions must be carefully weighed. The latest developments highlight the need for a diplomatic solution that prioritizes the safety and well-being of all those affected by the conflict.
As the situation evolves, further updates on the diplomatic efforts between the U.S. And Israel, as well as the Iranian government’s response to the ongoing bombardments, are expected in the coming days. The international community will be closely watching for any signs of de-escalation and a renewed commitment to finding a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
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