AGI – 2021 will bring 4.5% employment growth hand in hand with that of GDP which is estimated at 4.7%, 0.3% more than the estimate in the Def: this is the Istat forecast which, in the prospects for the Italian economy, underlines that unemployment will drop from 2022 and that in the coming months “inflationary pressures should continue to prevail”.
The occupation
The evolution of employment, measured in terms of AU (Labor Unit), “will be in line with that of GDP, with an acceleration in 2021 (+ 4.5%) and an increase in 2022 (+ 4.1%) “. The trend in the unemployment rate will instead reflect” the progressive normalization of the labor market with an increase in the current year (9.8%) and a slight decrease in 2022 (9.6%) “.
GDP
Istat provides “sustained growth” of Italian GDP both in 2021 (+ 4.7%) and in 2022 (+ 4.4%). This is what the Institute of Statistics indicates in the prospects for the Italian economy in 2021-22, which highlights “a consolidation of the process of recovery of economic activity with increasing intensity in the coming months”. The scenario, he stresses, “incorporates the effects of the gradual introduction of the interventions envisaged by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan”. These are better numbers than what the government indicated in the Def less than two months ago, when a growth of 4.5% was forecast for 2021.
Inflation
“In the coming months, inflationary pressures should continue to prevail”, underlines Istat. “In addition to the upward trends that currently characterize prices in the upstream phases of final distribution, production and above all import, a decisive contribution will be provided by the companyenergy cost company to which the inflationary contribution from the services component should be added“explains the statistical institute. In the 2021 average, the rate of change of the household expenditure deflator is expected to grow (+ 1.3%, -0.2% in 2020) while the GDP deflator will increase more content (+ 0.9%, 3 tenths less than in 2020). Under the hypothesis that the upward pressures in commodity prices assume transitory characteristics and that there is a stabilization of oil and exchange rates, in the next .
What will drive growth
In 2021, explains Istat, the GDP will come driven by domestic demand which, net of inventories, would contribute positively by 4.6 percentage points; net foreign demand would provide a limited positive contribution (+0.1 percentage points) while that of inventories would be zero in both forecast years. “The expansion phase of the Italian economy is expected to extend also to 2022 when, probably, the implementation of the measures envisaged in the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) should provide a more intense stimulus“supports Istat. In 2022, GDP is expected to increase (+ 4.4%), again supported by the decisive contribution of domestic demand net of inventories (for 4.5 percentage points) while net foreign demand would provide a marginal contribution negative (for -0.1 percentage points).
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