MIAMI, December 19, 2025 – Anthony Joshua is a massive favorite—currently listed at -1200—heading into Friday’s eight-round boxing match against Jake Paul at the Kaseya Center, but don’t tell that to Joshua himself. The former heavyweight champion believes a first-round knockout is not just likely, but a necessity for a successful return to the ring.
Joshua Eyes Swift Victory Over Paul
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The highly anticipated bout marks Joshua’s first fight since a September 21, 2024, knockout loss to Daniel Dubois, ending a four-fight winning streak.
- Anthony Joshua and Jake Paul will clash in an eight-round match on Friday, December 19, at the Kaseya Center in Miami.
- Joshua is a significant betting favorite, with odds of -1200, while Paul is a +700 underdog.
- The Netflix stream begins at 8 p.m. ET, with the fighters expected to walk out around 11 p.m. ET.
- Boxing analyst Josh Nagel predicts Joshua will win by TKO/KO at -360.
Paul, a 28-year-old YouTuber turned boxer, is coming off a 10-round unanimous decision win over former WBC middleweight champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in June. The fight will be streamed live on Netflix, beginning at 8 p.m. ET, with the walkouts anticipated around 11 p.m. ET.
Odds Favor Joshua, But Paul Isn’t Dismissed
Current betting odds, according to FanDuel, heavily favor Joshua. He’s priced at -1200, meaning a $1,200 bet would yield a $100 profit. Paul is a substantial underdog at +700, offering a potential $700 return on a $100 wager. The over/under for total rounds is set at 2.5, with the Over favored at -132 and the Under at +100.
Joshua, speaking earlier this week, stated that anything less than a first-round knockout would be considered a failure. A first-round victory for Joshua currently returns +300, while either fighter winning in the first round is priced at +310.
Expert Analysis Points to Joshua Dominance
Combat sports analyst Josh Nagel, who has successfully predicted outcomes in the sport for over 20 years, has studied the matchup extensively. Nagel’s recent successful predictions include calling Terence Crawford to defeat Canelo Alvarez by decision (+220) in September, Dimitry Bivol to upset Artur Beterbiev (+110) in February, Jarron Ennis to beat Eimantas Stanionis by KO (+155) in April, and Paul’s decision win over Chavez Jr. (-110) in June. He also correctly predicted Katie Taylor’s victory over Amanda Serrano (+170) in July.
Nagel’s current analysis points towards a TKO/KO victory for Joshua at -360. Joshua boasts three knockout wins in his last four fights, including a second-round KO over Francis Ngannou in March 2024. Paul faces a significant disadvantage in height (five inches) and reach (six inches), and has logged considerably fewer rounds in the ring (70) compared to Joshua (167).
Despite being eight years younger than Joshua, Paul is nearly 25 pounds lighter, even with a weight limit of 245 pounds for Joshua. Joshua’s professional record stands at 28-4 with 25 knockouts, while Paul is 12-1 with seven knockouts, though his competition has been significantly less challenging.
Betting Promos Available for New Users
New users can take advantage of several promotional offers. DraftKings is offering $200 in bonus bets with a winning wager. FanDuel is providing $250 in bonus bets with a $5 winning bet. Bet365 is offering $150 in bonus bets after placing a $5 bet.
Nagel has identified additional prop bets with value, including one returning around +300. His complete analysis and prop picks are available at SportsLine.
