A new Fox News Poll of Texas registered voters shows Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico holding a 3-point edge over Republican opponent Ken Paxton, capturing 51% of the vote compared to Paxton’s 48% in the closely watched contest, according to findings within the survey’s margin of sampling error. The matchup follows a Republican primary in which Paxton dominated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, though Republican pollster Daron Shaw noted that the bruising primary contest left lingering scars.
Early Texas Senate Poll Shows Talarico Leading Paxton by 3 Points
The survey highlights ongoing divisions within the Republican Party that have shaped the race. While President Donald Trump previously won the state by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024, Paxton has yet to fully unify the GOP despite receiving the president’s primary endorsement. According to the poll, fewer Republicans are unified behind Paxton at 89%, partly because one quarter of non-MAGA Republicans, or 24%, back Talarico. By contrast, virtually all Democrats at 98% and a majority of independents at 68% support Talarico.
Voter Motivation and Demographic Breakdowns
Voter enthusiasm is playing a significant role in the current dynamics. More Democrats than Republicans are extremely motivated to vote by a 7-point margin and extremely interested in the midterms by 6 points, Foxnews. Talarico’s advantage expands to 6 points among both extremely motivated and extremely interested voters, sitting at 53% to 47% in each of those specific groups.
Demographically, Paxton commands support among:
- White evangelical Christians
- White men without a college degree
- Rural voters
- Regular worship attenders
- Men and voters ages 65 and older
Meanwhile, some of Talarico’s strongest demographics include:
- Black voters
- Moderates
- Voters under age 30
- Hispanic voters
- Women and voters with a college degree
Additionally, 9% of Hispanic GOP voters crossover to support Talarico, while 5% of Hispanic Democrats favor Paxton.
Character Concerns and Campaign Strategy
Voter perceptions of candidate character and extremism are also influencing the race. By a 12-point margin, more voters are concerned that Paxton lacks the character to serve as a senator than believe Talarico is too extreme, standing at 59% versus 47%. Twice as many Republicans express concern over Paxton’s character as Democrats do that Talarico is too extreme, at 36% compared to 17%. Despite these concerns, approximately 8 in 10 supporters of both candidates say their backing is driven more by where the candidates stand on the issues than who they are as people.
He has considerable work to do with non-MAGA Republicans and independents, and that undoubtedly requires aggressively tying Talarico to the Democratic Party’s far left,
Shaw said regarding Paxton’s path forward.
Debates Take Shape Amid Additional Polling Context
As the campaign progresses, the candidates are also navigating proposed debates. Talarico announced dates and locations for three televised debates, stating that he has accepted the schedule and challenging Paxton to participate. Nick Maddux, an adviser to Paxton, stated that the campaign remains willing to debate but wants to ensure fair terms rather than allowing Talarico’s campaign to dictate the rules, adding that an agreement with a news organization is expected soon. The proposed debate schedule includes an event on September 22 in the Rio Grande Valley hosted by NBC, Telemundo, and Hearst; an October 6 event in Dallas hosted by WFAA and TEGNA; and an October 13 event in Austin hosted by KXAN and Nexstar.
Other recent surveys have also measured the competitive race. A July poll from Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR), conducted among 1,048 likely voters between July 15 and July 17, reported by fox4news.com, found Talarico leading Paxton 45% to 40%, a five-point difference that falls outside that poll’s plus-or-minus 3.4-point margin of error. Earlier polling in June—including a New York Times/Siena poll showing the candidates tied at 47% and a University of Texas and Texas Politics Project poll showing a 1-point gap—indicated a deadlocked race before the recent shifts.
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