Jaume Nadal, UN demographer: “In many areas of Ukraine, young people have left and only older women remain”

2023-04-30 18:27:04

Some studies indicate that the population of Ukraine will contract 30% in the coming decades, because of the war. And a recently published report by the European Commission has even gone so far as to estimate that Ukraine could have lost more than a third of its inhabitants in 2025, accelerating pre-existing demographic phenomena. At 54 years old, the Mallorcan Jaume Nadal Roigdemographer and representative of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in Ukraine, is prudent with long-term analysis as it is still a very recent and ongoing conflict, but also has few doubts. “The war is affecting demography (of Ukraine)”, he affirmed, in an interview with EL PERIÓDICO, from the Prensa Ibérica group.

Numbers and reality corroborate this situation. “We are talking about some 14 million people still in a situation of displacement, of which 5-6 million are internally displaced” within the country, says Nadal. “There is also an increasing proportion that is a returnee population. But the numbers are very fluid,” she warns, reasoning about trends that also reflect significant population movement. east and south (especially in areas where fighting is more intense) westward.

Demographic imbalances can be seen, in fact, in what is seen on a day-to-day basis. “As I said, there is no official data, but what we have also been seeing, from an empirical evidence perspective, is that, in many of the areas of the country most affected by the war, the young population is gone and those that remain are substantially older women, especially in rural areas“, he argues.

pre-war trend

The starting point, in any case, is that of a country that, already before the warhad a marked inclination of population decline (since the 90s of the last century). “This has to do with a few factors. One, the low fertility rate; another, that it is a peculiarity of Ukraine, male excess mortalitymainly due to problems with alcohol, tobacco, traffic accidents…”, he says.

Even so, according to the expert, the ongoing conflict will accentuate some demographic trends already underway. “From the maternity hospitals they tell us that births are much lower those before the war. In Kharkov (east), they told us that, of the 450,000 women of childbearing age there were, possibly some 80,000 remain. This gives the dimension of this process”, affirms the demographer.

Giving birth in war is an experience, without a doubt, with serious risks for the health of women and babies, with consequences that can be serious. In Ukraine, “what is estimated is an increase in between 7% and 10% of preterm birthsand there has also been an increase in cases of hypertension during pregnancy, as well as more sepsis, infections,” says Nadal. “Some doctors in Dnipro or Uzhgorod have also told us about an increase in abortions spontaneous,” he says.

All in all, according to this analyst with previous experience in missions in countries such as Egypt, Brazil and Bolivia and who is now one of the highest-ranking Spanish UN officials in Ukraine, stresses protocol improvements of Ukrainian health structures (910 is the total of those that have suffered attacks, according to the latest UN update). They work “despite the difficulties, they are some heroes and some heroines“.

With this, in eastern Ukraine, “if necessary, today it is possible give birth in basements set up as shelters. Of course no one should give birth like this but… it is the solution that has been found (in the existing circumstances)”, he affirms. In the west, on the other hand, the problem is that the centers are having to deal with having to attend to many more people, due to the greater number of Ukrainians now residing in these areas and need public service.

human trafficking

That is another topic. “Many women who before they had private insurancethey no longer have them due to their economic difficulties and, for this reason, they use the public service, which makes the public sector have an even more important role”, emphasizes Nadal, whose organization has received only 70% of the budget it needs to deal with their programs in the country.

It is not the only concern. There is also the plague of networks that traffic with humans. “At the beginning of the war, we saw networks operating in Ukraine and outside of Ukraine, running very active campaigns to recruit displaced women or women who were considering leaving. that presence continues“, he argues, pointing out that the risk is that things could get worse. “We are very concerned economic vulnerability many women’s homes,” he concludes.