Jet kerosene prices rose from $750 to $1,550 per ton in September, driving Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary to announce in Brussels that European airline tickets could surge by up to 20 percent by 2027 and that the low-cost carrier has already pulled one million seats and 20 routes from Belgium.
European travelers face a squeeze on air travel capacity. Fuel costs have climbed dramatically since hostilities began. Jet kerosene prices climbed to an average of $1,550 in September according to figures from the Fédération nationale de l’aviation et de ses métiers.
Fuel accounts for roughly a third of operating expenses for carriers.
Michael O’Leary Predicts Airfare Inflation Through 2028
During a press conference in Brussels, Ryanair’s chief executive outlined a financial outlook for the civil aviation sector. He predicted that passengers will encounter a dramatic ticket price increase ranging between 10 and 20 percent starting in 2027.
French media outlet BFM reported that O’Leary warned the continent is about to witness the sharpest airfare inflation in European history over the coming twelve months.
Major airlines traditionally shield themselves from sudden oil market volatility by purchasing fuel well in advance through fixed hedging contracts. Those protective agreements are rapidly expiring.
O’Leary noted during a meeting hosted by Airlines for Europe that financial pressure will persist possibly until 2028. Many carriers lack adequate fuel price hedges for 2027.
I advise people to book their next holidays as quickly as possible because prices are only going to go up.
Michael O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair
Executives from IAG, Lufthansa, EasyJet, and Air France-KLM share similar cost pressures, and many have already adjusted their fare structures upward. Beyond fuel, leadership at the conference addressed ongoing discussions regarding aviation safety following a cockpit incident involving flydubai.
Lufthansa chief executive Carsten Spohr acknowledged that while pilot mental health evaluations are stringent, complete prevention of intentional actions remains an inherent challenge within commercial flight decks.
Belgium Absorbs Capacity Cuts Amid Political Friction Over New Federal Taxes
In Belgium, Ryanair’s network adjustments have materialized as the carrier removes 20 routes and slashes more than one million seats for the winter schedule.
The reductions affect 13 routes from Brussels-South Charleroi Airport and seven from Brussels Airport in Zaventem, where Dublin remains the sole destination served.
The airline’s announcement follows a long saga regarding federal and municipal aviation levies. Although the federal government adjusted its planned 10-euro tax down to 7 euros effective January 1, 2027—an increase from the current 5-euro rate—O’Leary dismissed the concession as an unsuccessful and stupid initiative by Bart De Wever
.
Didier Lebbe characterized the airline’s moves as a predictable seasonal adjustment rather than a genuine structural shift. He didn’t announce anything new,
Lebbe said, pointing out that winter fleet numbers at Charleroi traditionally hover around 14 aircraft, with summer numbers reaching 19 or 20 planes. I’ve been saying it from the beginning: it’s bluffing!
Regional Disagreements and European Scalebacks Shape the Aviation Market
The political response inside Belgium reveals clear divisions across regional and federal authorities. Federal Mobility Jean-Luc Crucke condemned the carrier’s maneuver, calling it blackmail and no respect for the societal framework
.
Regional Walloon leaders urged the federal government to take measure of the stakes.
Regional leaders encouraged Brussels-South Charleroi Airport to accelerate business model diversification to reduce its reliance on the Irish carrier.
| Airport / Location | Reported Impact | Strategic Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brussels (Zaventem) | Seven routes cut; only Dublin service retained | High exposure to federal tax adjustments |
| Charleroi (BSCA) | Thirteen routes cut, though winter base holds at 14 aircraft | Seasonal capacity shifts combined with local tax disputes |
| European Network | Services ended or suspended across thirteen airports between 2026 and 2027 | Fleet redistribution toward lower-cost markets in response to fuel and tax pressures |
Between 2026 and 2027, Ryanair has curtailed or scheduled the suspension of operations across 13 European airports, balancing complete withdrawals, winter pauses, and seasonal endings.
Clermont-Ferrand lost its three routes and Brême is slated for abandonment in April 2027, while bases like Rimini are gaining flights following the removal of a local municipal tax.