2024-05-11 14:04:38
French President Macron says he wants to buy European weapons, not American or Korean ones.
“Weapons exports must be carried out quietly and secretly. Since the governments of each country are customers, there is no need to publicize exports. The excellence of domestically produced weapons can be made known by actively utilizing defense industry exhibitions or, if necessary, by inviting overseas buyers to the military’s firepower demonstration. However, the government’s recent promotion of the so-called K-defense industry seems excessive. “The government’s role in defense exports should be to quietly resolve diplomatic difficulties that companies cannot resolve.”
In response to French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent remarks in Europe about keeping the Korean defense industry in check, Baek Beom-heum, a visiting professor at Seoul National University’s Asia Research Institute, explained, “We need to foster a substantial defense industry.” Professor Baek, who served as Consul General in Frankfurt and Deputy Secretary-General of the Korea-China-Japan Cooperation Secretariat, analyzed, “(President Macron’s remarks) are evidence that the Korean defense industry has grown significantly, and at the same time, it is a signal that the government’s excessive publicity has had the adverse effect of keeping major European countries in check.”
As the war in Ukraine and the Middle East prolonged and the new Cold War intensified, military spending by the international community reached an all-time high. According to the ‘2023 Global Military Expenditure Trends’ report by the Swedish think tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), military spending by countries around the world last year amounted to $2.443 trillion (approximately 3346.91 trillion won), with related statistics compiled in 1988. It was the largest since it began (see Graph 1). This is a 6.8% increase compared to 2022, showing the steepest increase since 2009. Looking at each country, 28 out of 32 NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) member countries increased military spending compared to the previous year. SIPRI cited the prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine, the war in Gaza triggered by the Israel-Hamas armed conflict, and the possibility of armed conflict between China and Taiwan as the main reasons for the rapid increase in global military spending.
Global military spending on the Ukraine-Gaza war is at an all-time high
The geopolitical crisis that encourages military buildup is likely to escalate further in the future. There is no clear exit strategy for the Russia-Ukraine war, and tensions in the Middle East are increasing due to the Israel-Hamas war. In East Asia, known as another global powder keg, the intensity of North Korea’s nuclear threat is also increasing day by day amid rumors of China’s invasion of Taiwan. The decline in the influence of the United States, which claimed to be the world’s most powerful country after the end of the Cold War, is also a macroscopic factor that stimulates each country’s military buildup. Former President Donald Trump has threatened to reduce U.S. military support for his key allies if he wins re-election. In a situation where Russia and China do not hesitate to use force to change the status quo in the west and east of the Eurasian continent, respectively, neighboring countries have no choice but to take steps to strengthen their military.
The international community’s move to increase military spending is both a crisis and an opportunity for Korea. The escalating threat from China and North Korea is a significant challenge to national security, but political and economic influence can be increased with the defense industry capabilities accumulated so far. According to SIPRI statistics, Korea’s global arms market share from 2019 to 2023 was 2.0%, ranking 10th (see Graph 2). Compared to 2014-2018, the market share increased by 12%. The top export destination was Poland (27%), followed by the Philippines (19%) and India (15%). There is great potential for growth in the Korean defense industry in the future. Although they immediately increased their military spending, only 11 NATO member countries, including the UK, met the defense budget target (spending 2% of gross domestic product) last year. If the pressure from the United States to increase military spending becomes stronger, the remaining NATO member countries will have no choice but to increase their spending. This is an opportunity for the Korean defense industry, which has been targeting middle-income countries in Asia as its main customers, to expand its sales channels to Europe using Poland as a base.
As the Korean defense industry grew in size, checks began in earnest. France, which has the second largest share of the global defense industry market along with Russia, has fired a signal to keep it in check. In a speech to European Union (EU) Parliament officials at the Sorbonne in Paris, France on April 25 (local time), President Macron said, “(After the Russia-Ukraine war) we responded by purchasing American and Korean weapons. “We need to purchase more European-made military equipment for Europe’s independent defense,” he said. “If we do not fulfill our responsibility to develop the European defense industry, will we be able to protect our sovereignty and autonomy?” is interpreted as an argument for self-reliance in the defense industry and at the same time as a message to keep the US and Korean defense industries in check.
Korea ranks 10th in global arms market share
The checks and balances of major European countries, as revealed by President Macron’s remarks, are more threatening to the Korean defense industry than to the United States. From the perspective of European countries, purchasing American weapons is inevitable. In the event of an emergency, NATO member countries have no choice but to receive support from the United States, and in preparation for this, they must maintain weapon compatibility. On the other hand, in the case of Korean weapons, although their performance is excellent, considering ‘political judgment’, they are still close to being a ‘cost-effective’ option. The possibility that European countries showing interest in Korean weapons may choose weapons made in neighboring France or Germany cannot be ruled out. There are also concerns within and outside the domestic defense industry that “a movement is being detected in Eastern Europe where some military experts are devaluing Korean-made weapons.”
In response to this, In-gyun Shin, CEO of the Independent Defense Network, said, “Currently, the only countries in Europe with a comprehensive defense industry are Germany and France, but President Macron is putting pressure on Eastern European countries that show great interest in Korean-made weapons.” He added, “Due to the nature of purchasing weapons, “Given the significant involvement of political decisions, lobbying by major European countries based on their influence in the region is also a variable that cannot be ignored in Korea’s defense industry exports,” he pointed out. Kim Dae-young, a military researcher at the Korea Institute for National Strategy, said, “As Germany and France have competitiveness in the defense industry in terms of financial support through loans or their own global banks, the Korean government must also prepare a response plan.”
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Kim Woo-jeong, Weekly Donga Reporter friend@donga.com
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2024-05-11 14:04:38