Title: Ukrainian Forces Make Strategic Advance as Russian Paramilitary Group Threatens Revolt
Date: August 29, 2022
Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister, Hanna Maliar, announced on August 28 that the small village of Robotyne had been liberated, marking an important advance for Ukraine. While the village may be insignificant in itself, it lies on a strategic road that leads to the Russian-occupied road and railway hub of Tokmak, which further connects to the key city of Melitopol, known as Ukraine’s gateway to the Crimean peninsula before the illegal annexation by Russia in 2014.
The liberation of Robotyne followed a threat from Rusich, a Russian neo-Nazi paramilitary group stationed at the village’s front line. The group had expressed its willingness to lay down arms, which may have contributed to Ukraine’s successful operation. Rusich cited the detention of one of its top commanders and founding members, Yan Petrovsky, in Finland, and the lack of Russian government intervention as the reason behind the threat.
Petrovsky, a dual Russian-Norwegian national and alleged contractor for the Wagner Group, faces terrorism-related charges in Ukraine. If extradited, he could potentially face a prison sentence of 15 to 20 years. Antifascist Europe, a research project, captured frustrating messages from Rusich members regarding their treatment by Russian authorities.
The Institute for the Study of War confirmed the presence of Rusich near Robotyne, describing the area as critical for the Russian military command. Despite no official confirmation from Rusich or the Russian defense ministry regarding their fighters’ actions, expert Jeff Hawn suggested that the mercenaries likely laid down their arms. Hawn claimed that Russia’s shortage of fighters prevents them from replacing units that surrender, and the truth may only emerge after several years.
Hawn further explained that a revolt among Russian mercenary fighters was not solely linked to the detention of the group’s leader, but rather a general loss of motivation and Moscow’s inability to control them. The situation for paramilitary groups had been complicated earlier with Wagner’s attempted mutiny and the deaths of their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and his reported right-hand man Dmitry Utkin.
Prigozhin had established a reputation for taking care of his mercenaries, paying them well in dollars. However, after the failed mutiny and Moscow’s attempts to dissolve the group, working conditions deteriorated. Payment in rubles and scarce supplies adversely affected the other militias fighting in Ukraine as well.
Furthermore, the deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin disrupted the shadow power structure built around their connections and ability to command the mercenaries. With Prigozhin no longer a presence, it would become increasingly difficult for Moscow to control the remaining militia groups still active in Ukraine. There are concerns that some Russian fighters might even defect and join pro-Kyiv Russian fighters, such as the Free Russian Legion.
The incident in Robotyne carries significant implications and serves as an indicator of potential future developments. As Ukraine continues its strategic advances, the willingness of Russian paramilitary groups to switch sides could pose a further challenge to Moscow’s control over the situation.
In conclusion, the liberation of Robotyne represents a crucial victory for Ukraine, while the threat of revolt among Russian paramilitary groups signifies a possible loss of control by Moscow. The evolving dynamics in the region continue to shape the overall conflict in Ukraine, promising more significant developments in the days to come.