Two years after the start of the full-scale war,the dynamics of Western support for Kiev is losing momentum: new aid allocations decreased in the period between August 2023 and January 2024 compared to the same period the previous year,according to the latest report from the kiel Institutereleased in February 2024. And this trend could continue, as the US Senate struggles to approve aid, and the European Union (EU) has had a hard time getting $50 billion in aid adopted on february 1, 2024, as Hungarian bloc.Please note that these two aid packages are not yet taken into account in the latest evaluation carried out by the Kiel Institute, which ends in January 2024.
Data from the german institute shows that the number of donors is decreasing and is concentrated around a core of countries: the United States,Germany,northern and eastern European countries,which promise both high financial aid and advanced armaments. In total,as of february 2022,countries supporting Kiev have committed at least 276 billion euros at a military,financial or humanitarian level.
In absolute terms, the richest countries were the most generous. The United States is by far the largest donor, with over 75 billion euros in aid announced, including 46.3 billion in military aid. European Union countries have announced both bilateral aid (64.86 billion euros) and joint aid from European Union funds (93.25 billion euros),for a total of 158.1 billion euros.
When we relate these contributions to the gross domestic product (GDP) of each donor country, the ranking changes. the United States fell to twentieth place (0.32% of GDP), well behind countries neighboring Ukraine or kind former Soviet republics. Estonia leads the way in aid to GDP with 3.55%, followed by denmark (2.41%) and Norway (1.72%). the rest of the top 5 is completed by Lithuania (1.54%) and Latvia (1.15%). the three Baltic states, which all border Russia or its ally belarus, have been among the most generous donors as the conflict began.
In the percentage of GDP ranking, France is twenty-seventh, having committed to 0.07% of its GDP, promptly behind Greece (0.09%). Aid provided by Paris has been steadily declining since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: France was 24th in April 2023 and 13th in the summer of 2022.
How can smaller nations enhance their role in supporting Ukraine amidst a concentrated donor base?
Interview: Analyzing Western Support for Ukraine – A Conversation with Dr. Elena Vesnina, Political Analyst
Time.news Editor: Welcome, Dr. Vesnina. It’s great to have you with us today to discuss the recent dynamics of Western support for Ukraine, especially in light of the Kiel Institute’s report. How do you interpret the decreasing trend in aid allocations we’ve seen between August 2023 and January 2024?
Dr. Elena vesnina: thank you for having me. The decrease in aid allocations during this period is indeed notable.The data suggests that supporters of Ukraine,notably in the West,might potentially be experiencing donor fatigue after two years of a full-scale conflict. This could lead to challenges in sustaining the momentum of support, especially with political hurdles like the US Senate’s struggle to approve new aid and the EU’s difficulties in finalizing ample aid packages.
Time.news Editor: the report mentions a concentration of aid among a core group of countries, such as the United States and Germany. What implications does this concentration have for Ukraine’s support strategy moving forward?
Dr. Elena Vesnina: A concentrated donor base could pose risks for Ukraine. If fewer countries are providing aid, any political shifts or changes in public opinion within those donor countries can dramatically affect the level of support. Ukraine may need to diversify its donor pool and strengthen its relationships with smaller countries that have shown commitment,especially in terms of GDP contributions,like the Baltic states.
Time.news Editor: It’s fascinating to note that when assessing aid relative to GDP, smaller nations like Estonia and Denmark lead the way. What does this tell us about the role of smaller nations in geopolitical support frameworks?
Dr. Elena Vesnina: smaller nations often have a different approach to foreign aid and security issues.For countries like Estonia and Denmark, geographical proximity to Russia amplifies the sense of urgency to support Ukraine. Their commitment reflects both a moral obligation and a strategic interest in regional stability. This highlights how smaller countries can have a disproportionate influence in international relations, particularly when they align themselves with a cause they perceive as vital to their own security.
Time.news Editor: France’s declining aid levels are also concerning, with a drop from 0.09% of GDP earlier to just 0.07%. How do you view France’s role and potential future in supporting Ukraine?
Dr. elena Vesnina: France’s declining aid is notable, as it suggests a shift in priorities or possibly a reaction to domestic political pressures. Historically, france has played a pivotal role in European security. If its support continues to wane, it could lead to a vacuum that other countries may or may not fill. France needs to reassess its strategic interests and reaffirm its commitment not only to Ukraine but also to European unity in the face of aggression.
Time.news Editor: Given the current landscape of aid to Ukraine and the geopolitical shifts, what practical advice would you offer to countries looking to increase their support effectively?
Dr. Elena Vesnina: Countries looking to increase their support for Ukraine should first assess the type of assistance that would be most impactful—whether military, financial, or humanitarian. Collaboration with other nations to pool resources could enhance effectiveness. Furthermore, engaging in diplomatic forums where smaller nations can voice their readiness for support can help broaden the coalition backing Ukraine.A obvious dialog strategy is equally important, ensuring that citizens understand the rationale behind continued assistance and the implications of inaction.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, Dr. Vesnina, for this compelling analysis on the evolving dynamics of Western support for Ukraine. Your insights are invaluable as we navigate these complex geopolitics.
Dr. Elena Vesnina: Thank you for the possibility. It’s crucial that we stay informed and engaged in discussions about Ukraine’s support. The path ahead may be challenging, but it is essential for regional and global stability.