SEOUL — A previously undisclosed report to the South Korean government reveals that all 179 people aboard Jeju Air Flight 7C2216, which crashed over a year ago, could have survived if a concrete wall at the end of the runway had been constructed with breakable materials. It’s a chilling thought, isn’t it? What if a simple design choice could have rewritten a tragic outcome?
The report, based on computer simulations of the Boeing 737-800’s emergency landing at Muan airport in the country’s southwest, concluded the accident unfolded differently because the wall housing navigation antennas—called localisers—wasn’t built to easily give way, as international and South Korean guidelines recommend.
Commissioned by the Transport Ministry as part of its official investigation, the research was completed in August and began surfacing publicly after disclosures by a lawmaker on Thursday. The findings raise serious questions about infrastructure safety and the potential for preventable disasters.
Investigation Stalled, Questions Remain
More than a year after the crash—which claimed the lives of all but two passengers—the cause remains unclear. The ongoing investigation faces uncertainty, as relatives of the victims and lawmakers have expressed doubts about its credibility. Two Thai citizens were among the 177 Korean fatalities.
Pilots reported bird strikes to the engines as the plane approached the runway, prompting them to shut down one engine that appeared less damaged before attempting an emergency landing. However, the simulation report suggests the wall, not engine failure, was the critical factor in the tragedy.
An investigation last year revealed the concrete berm—originally designed in 1999, reinforced in 2003, and further strengthened 10 months before the December 2024 crash—violated international safety standards. The solid structure, investigators found, likely exacerbated the severity of the accident.
What would have happened with a compliant wall? The computer model showed the aircraft would have glided through softer materials, sliding an additional 630 metres and stopping largely intact, with no severe injuries.
Since the crash, the Transport Ministry pledged to improve runway infrastructure, including removing concrete berms at seven airports. As of the end of last year, five airports had completed the work, but Muan and Jeju Island airports remain unfinished.
According to computer analysis, Jeju Air Flight 2216, departing from Thailand, touched down in Muan at 232 mph without deploying its landing gear. The aircraft glided on its fuselage for over 1,100 metres before colliding with the concrete wall at 260 kph.
Researchers ran a separate simulation using the wall’s original structure, before the 2024 concrete addition. That model indicated the extra concrete didn’t significantly increase the number of fatalities.
Lawmaker Calls for Accountability
The report’s findings were initially shared privately with members of the National Assembly’s special committee auditing the crash investigation. On Thursday, Kim Eun-hye publicly released the report’s key conclusions.
Kim called for those responsible for the concrete structure to be investigated by police, stating that 44 people, including the former transport minister, have already been reported to authorities in connection with the crash—though no charges have been filed.
“The simulation results that no one would have died if it weren’t for the berm are shocking,” Kim said in a statement, adding that they “overturned the government’s position that there was no problem with the berm”.
Kim Gihun, director-general of the South Korean investigation board, confirmed the report’s submission to the committee. “We’ve submitted everything we’ve found so far to the National Assembly,” he said. “Because you can’t hide from the national audit.”
The Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea, which produced the report, declined to comment, citing a confidentiality agreement.
The organization representing crash victims’ relatives issued a statement saying the findings demonstrated the disaster was preventable and criticized the delay in releasing the report. “Not a single line of this report was released to the bereaved families,” the statement read.
Some relatives questioned the report’s conclusion that the latest concrete addition didn’t significantly contribute to fatalities. “I believe this conclusion is probably intended to exonerate those currently in charge and those who have been involved since 2020,” said Lee Jun-hwa, a Seoul-based architect who lost his mother in the crash.
Kim Gihun maintained the report simply presented the simulation results.
