The Las Vegas Raiders will select Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, according to consensus projections from multiple NFL draft analysts.
Mendoza, the Indiana quarterback who led the Hoosiers to a 16-0 record and a national championship, finished his college career with an FBS-high 41 touchdown passes and only six interceptions. His size, arm strength, and decision-making ability have positioned him as the consensus top prospect, with analysts noting his resilience through adversity last season as a key factor in his rise.
The Fresh York Jets are projected to capture David Bailey, the edge rusher from Texas Tech, at No. 2, though there is disagreement among analysts about whether the Jets would prefer Arvell Reese of Ohio State instead. Bailey’s athleticism and tenacity give him high upside as a pass rusher, though he has room to grow as a run defender. Reese, meanwhile, is viewed as an interchangeable defender capable of starting at either linebacker or edge, with explosive power and the versatility to fit multiple defensive schemes.
The Arizona Cardinals are expected to trade back in the first round, sending their No. 3 pick to the Dallas Cowboys in exchange for Nos. 12 and 20, plus a 2027 second-round pick. The Cowboys, seeking an immediate impact defender to pair with Micah Parsons, see Reese as a foundational piece who can play both off-ball linebacker and edge rusher. Dallas’ personnel staff does not view their second first-round pick at No. 20 as having significant value, making the trade a win-now move to address defensive needs.
For more on this story, see Fernando Mendoza Pro Day: Raiders-Linked QB Impresses NFL Scouts.
The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to trade into the top three to select Reese, despite not holding a top-10 pick since moving up for Patrick Mahomes in 2017. Analysts note that Reese’s ability to impact the game on the line of scrimmage or from off-ball spots makes him an ideal fit for Steve Spagnuolo’s Bolo punch defense, and the Chiefs would retain their No. 29 pick in the process.
The New York Giants, meanwhile, are seen as having a clear plan for the departure of Dexter Lawrence II, whose trade over the weekend altered the draft’s landscape. Six teams now control a majority of the draft capital, and many believe the talent pool lacks elite-tier prospects, prompting trade activity inside the top five to secure premium options. One analyst compared the current environment to the 2013 draft, when the Dolphins traded up to No. 3 for Dion Jordan using only that year’s first- and second-round picks — a draft that, despite criticism for its lack of stars, still produced future Hall of Famers like Lane Johnson and Travis Kelce.
Analysts similarly note that the Cardinals and Titans are emerging as pivot points in the draft, with Arizona able to either stand pat at No. 3 or trade back to accumulate more Day 2 capital, where the value of this year’s class is believed to be strongest. The Cardinals’ offensive line remains a concern, having allowed 59 sacks last season — fifth most in the NFL — and finishing with the lowest run-block win rate among tackles, making a long-term solution at right tackle a priority regardless of their draft path.
This follows our earlier report, 2026 NFL Mock Draft: Top Prospects and First Round Predictions.
Why are teams trading up in the top five of this year’s draft?
Teams believe the overall talent pool lacks elite-tier prospects, making it worthwhile to move up to secure a “premium” player rather than risk missing out later.
What makes Arvell Reese a attractive target for multiple teams in the top three?
Reese is viewed as an interchangeable defender with explosive power who can start at either linebacker or edge rusher, offering versatility and immediate impact in multiple defensive schemes.
