Latin America and the Caribbean are heading toward one of their strongest commercial performances in years. Driven by rising commodity prices, robust export volumes, and soaring demand across Asia, the region’s goods trade surged during the first half of 2026, according to a regional economic study.
The total value of trade in goods and services across Latin America and the Caribbean accelerated significantly during the opening half of the year. Exports jumped 18% compared to the same period in the previous three years, while import activity advanced 13%, according to a report published by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. The organization noted that the robust momentum was led primarily by the trade of goods, which saw export figures expand by 20% and import volumes rise by 14% during the initial six months.
Commodity Boom and Regional Export Projections
The primary driver behind the expansion is a powerful rally in raw material prices. Officials pointed out that the main impulse comes from minerals and metals
, with market prices for these commodities expected to climb 31.6% throughout 2026. Copper, gold, silver, and tin lead the charge in driving up export values. The study, released on Thursday, October 15, 2026, by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, noted that these developments are part of a broader outlook where the region’s total value of goods and services trade shows significant dynamism.
Beyond raw pricing power, physical export volumes are climbing steadily, particularly in manufacturing sectors like Mexico’s. Total regional export value for goods is projected to leap from US$1.5 trillion in 2025 to US$1.9 trillion in 2026, marking a 20% annual increase fueled by an 11% bump in prices and a 9% rise in volume.
Out of 33 countries in the region, 28 are expected to register export growth, with 16 posting double-digit gains.
- Mexico: projected to grow from US$665,598 million to US$835,325 million
Realignment Toward Asian Trade Partners
Regional trade flows are undergoing a distinct geographic shift. While China remains the region’s dominant Asian market—with regional exports to China rising 24% and imports climbing 10% during the first half of the year—rapid growth is also taking root elsewhere.
Although China continues to be the principal Asian market for the region, the rapid growth of trade with the India and with the economies of Southeast Asia contributes to reducing the concentration of exports in a single destination and strengthens economic ties with South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region.
Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
Shipments directed toward Asia, excluding China, lead the expansion curve with a projected 32% surge, outstripping growth rates tied to the United States (24%), the European Union (20%), and China (19%). Trade with the United States remained resilient despite disruptions tied to tariff policies under President Donald Trump, continuing to serve as a primary engine for export growth during the first half of 2026 as regional shipments to that market increased 20% year-on-year.
The Challenge of Value Addition and Technological Innovation
Despite the positive trade figures, international economists warn that the region must avoid over-reliance on basic resource extraction. Modern services—ranging from professional, financial, and business operations to audiovisual arts, creative industries, and research and development—offer strategic pathways to diversify exports.
The main challenge is not just to increase exports of raw materials, but also to leverage these resources to drive activities with higher added value, linked to innovation and technological development.
Services trade is maintaining an upward trajectory alongside goods. Export figures for services are expected to grow 11% this year, while imports rise by 9%, backed by a general recovery in global economic output, increased international transport activity, and a steady rebound in tourism.
Terms of Trade and Economic Disparities
The broader economic benefits are not distributed evenly across the territory. Regional terms of trade are projected to improve by 6% over the course of the year, driven by export prices climbing faster than import costs. The highest gains are concentrated in countries heavily tied to hydrocarbon and natural resource extraction, including Peru, Venezuela, Bolivia, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, and Guyana.