Riga, december 26, 2025 – Local government elections dominated the political landscape this year and will cast a long shadow over the upcoming Saeima elections, according to a leading political scientist. The results of those municipal contests will be crucial for any party hoping to gain traction in parliamentary voting.
Local Votes Set Stage for National Elections
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Key local election outcomes will directly influence the success of parties in next year’s Saeima elections.
- Local elections are a critical proving ground for national candidates.
- The recently adopted state budget will shape the economic environment through next year.
- A government “restart” failed to deliver significant change.
- Populist promises are expected to proliferate as elections approach.
“The biggest takeaway from the year in politics is that the local government elections were a pivotal event,setting the stage for the Saeima elections and demonstrating the importance of grassroots support for any party seeking national success.”
Budget Decisions to Resonate Through 2026
The end-of-year battle over the state budget also stands out as a defining moment, Rajevskis noted. The budget, which will remain in effect through the end of next year-even after a new parliament is elected-reflects a decision to prioritize borrowing over austerity.This approach is expected to have lasting consequences for inflation and, ultimately, voter choices.
“We will live with this budget until the end of next year, and even the new parliament elected in the autumn will still be operating under the budget drafted by this Saeima,” Rajevskis explained. “The decision in fiscal policy to follow a path of borrowing rather than sensible austerity will leave a long-term imprint and will also affect the inflation environment. In turn, rising costs will influence society’s choices in the upcoming parliamentary elections.”
Government ‘Restart’ Falls Flat
The government’s attempt at a mid-year overhaul-dubbed a “4×4 restart”-failed to deliver meaningful change, according to the political scientist. The effort amounted to little more than shuffling a few ministerial positions, with the core issues remaining unaddressed.
“The government restart was limited merely to replacing a few ministerial faces; everything else should be written off as losses, dumped into the political trash heap,” Rajevskis said, sharply criticizing the initiative announced earlier in the year by the prime minister.
Looking ahead to 2026, Rajevskis expressed cautious optimism, hoping for positive economic developments. “One must hope that the symptoms which have appeared in the economy will have some positive effect. Perhaps people will have more money; that woudl only be positive. It is also possible that some investments will arrive. As we can see, part of the government is doing something in this area.” He also predicted a surge in populist rhetoric as the election cycle intensifies, echoing a sentiment once expressed by a founder of Jaunā Vienotība: “How can you not promise?”