Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs led his centrist United List to a historic victory in the October 3 parliamentary elections, capturing 42 of 100 seats and 35.3 percent of the vote. The result delivers the strongest single-party mandate since the country’s independence in 1991, setting the stage to maintain strong defense spending and unwavering support for Ukraine.
Nearly 800,000 Latvians cast ballots in the country’s 11th parliamentary elections since breaking away from the Soviet Union in 1991. Voter turnout reached 51.8 percent according to Central Election Commission data. The tally gives the incumbent prime minister a commanding political position, though falling short of an absolute majority in the unicameral Saeima.
United List Wins Record Seats in Riga
The centrist, pro-Ukraine United List surged past all rivals to claim 41 of the 100 seats in preliminary counts, later settling at 42 seats as postal ballots were finalized. The performance marks the strongest showing for any single list since the restoration of independence, surpassing the previous high set by Latvian Way with 36 seats in 1993. About 807,000 of the country’s approximately 1.558 million registered voters cast ballots, with the Central Election Commission confirming that 14 political parties and party alliances took part in the contest for the 15th Saeima. A partnership on unmanned systems was concluded in June between Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, covering defense product supplies, funding for Ukrainian manufacturing, joint defense initiatives, and the mutual sharing of technology, expertise, and insights—including the establishment of a unified air defense network. Under national methodology and the revised March economic projections, the 2026 national defense budget sits at roughly €2.16 billion, which accounts for 4.73 per cent of GDP, or 4.9 per cent based on the NATO criteria. According to the Ministry of Finance, meeting the required statutory floor will necessitate an extra €92 million in 2027 and upwards of €1.1 billion by 2030, with the overall government deficit projected to hit 3.3 per cent of GDP in 2026 directly driven by military outlays alongside fiscal regulations limiting public debt to 55 per cent of GDP.
In the capital city of Riga, where voter turnout climbed to 63.8 percent, Kulbergs’ list pulled in 30.5 percent of the vote and collected 59,108 individual pluses from voters. The populist Latvia First finished second nationally with 13.1 percent and 17 seats, while the pro-Russian Sovereign Power party took third place at 11.7 percent and 14 seats. Behind the leading alliance, the right-wing populist Latvia First and the rising Sovereign Power claimed second and third place respectively. The National Alliance secured 11 seats, the Progressives won 9 seats, and New Unity claimed 7 seats, while the Union of Greens and Farmers finished slightly below the 5 percent threshold required to win seats in parliament. National turnout for the 15th Saeima elections stood at 51.81 percent according to commission figures.
The prime minister added that the decisive outcome signified economic growth
and a future for (Latvia’s) children
. His centrist alliance rose sharply in voter support following his arrival at the head of the government in May, capitalizing on a campaign heavily centered on national security. Kulbergs took power at the end of May following the fall of the previous government after an incident on 7 May involving Ukrainian military drones which were diverted into Latvian territory by Russian electronic jamming and crashed on Latvian soil.
Security Concerns Shape Election Results
Voters went to the polls against a backdrop of regional tension, with security concerns over an emboldened Russia dominating public debate. Sandwiched between Russia and Belarus, Latvia shares an external European border and has faced what intelligence officials describe as an escalating hybrid threat involving cyberattacks and migrant pressure.
Because we are the external border of Europe, we must have a strong economy…
Andris Kulbergs, Latvian Prime Minister, via Euronews
Kulbergs campaigned on maintaining defense spending at 5 percent of gross domestic product—one of the highest levels in NATO—alongside enhanced anti-drone capabilities. Throughout the campaign, Kulbergs promised stronger anti-drone protection for the nation. Meanwhile, the Latvian State Security Service operating on high alert and identifying signals regarding potential electoral violations.
While mainstream parties backed heavy military spending, populist rivals focused heavily on domestic cost-of-living struggles. Pro-Russian figures argued that Riga should scale back aid to Kyiv and eventually restore economic ties with Moscow, though such factions remained sidelined and unlikely to dictate government policy.
Former Coalition Partners Suffer Heavy Losses
While the United List celebrated a record win, its former governing partners suffered severe losses. New Unity fell from 26 seats to just seven, while the Union of Greens and Farmers dropped below the 5 percent parliamentary threshold with 4.62 percent of the vote.
Former Prime Minister Evika Siliņa acknowledged that her party might have fared better had it not joined Kulbergs’ caretaker cabinet in the spring.
Because 42 seats do not constitute an outright majority in the 100-seat assembly, Kulbergs must forge a coalition.
