Title: Survey Suggests Potential Leadership Changes Could Strengthen Likud Coalition
Subtitle: Economy Minister Nir Barkat or Defense Minister Yoav Galant Could Boost Likud Mandates, Maariv Survey Shows
[Date]
In a recent survey conducted by “Lazar Researches” led by Dr. Menachem Lazar, in collaboration with Panel4ALL, it has been revealed that if Economy Minister Nir Barkat or Defense Minister Yoav Galant were to lead the Likud party, the coalition would see an increase of up to two mandates compared to its current polling numbers.
According to the survey, if Barkat were to become the head of Likud, the state camp party would lose two mandates to the Likud. However, the Likud party would gain a single mandate, as it loses one to Otzma Yehudit. Meanwhile, if Galant were to lead Likud, the state camp would lose three mandates, primarily to the Likud. Nonetheless, the Likud party does not gain additional mandates, losing two to three mandates to religious Zionist parties and Otzma Yehudit.
These findings suggest that both Barkat and Galant could potentially strengthen the Likud coalition if they were to assume leadership positions within the party.
The overall political landscape, however, has seen no significant changes in recent weeks. As the country prepares for next week’s hearing in the High Court regarding petitions against the reduction of the reasonableness clause, issues such as the controversy over the compromise of the President’s House, the ongoing wave of attacks, and the possibility of normalization with Saudi Arabia loom large.
The survey indicates that both the state camp and the Likud party are losing mandates, while religious Zionism and Ra’am are gaining strength. Currently, the balance between the blocs remains unchanged, with 53 MKs supporting the coalition and 67 MKs siding with the opposition.
Responding to the question of whom they would vote for in new Knesset elections, the survey participants expressed their preferences as follows:
– State Camp: 30 mandates (down from 31 in the previous survey)
– Likud: 26 mandates (down from 27)
– Yesh Atid: 17 mandates (unchanged)
– Shas: 10 mandates (unchanged)
– Torah Judaism: 7 mandates (unchanged)
– Religious Zionism: 6 mandates (up from 5)
– Hadash-Ta’al: 5 mandates (unchanged)
– Yisrael Beitenu: 5 mandates (unchanged)
– Ra’am: 6 mandates (up from 5)
– Otzma Yehudit: 4 mandates (unchanged)
– Meretz: 4 mandates (unchanged)
– Balad: 1.6% (down from 2.4% in the previous survey)
– Work: 1.8% (down from 2.1%)
It is worth noting that both Balad and Work fall below the blocking percentage.
The survey also presented scenarios in which Barkat or Galant would lead Likud:
– In the scenario where Barkat heads Likud, the results showed:
– Likud: 27 mandates
– State Camp: 28 mandates
– Other party mandates remained relatively stable, with minor changes
– In the scenario where Galant heads Likud, the results showed:
– Likud: 26 mandates
– State Camp: 27 mandates
– Other party mandates remained relatively stable, with minor changes
These findings suggest that both scenarios would result in a coalition with 55 mandates.
Furthermore, the survey examined public opinion regarding the compromise of the President’s House on legal legislation. The results showed a divided Israeli public, with 43% opposing the compromise and 39% supporting it. Right-wing voters predominantly opposed the compromise (62%), while center-left voters mostly supported it (61%).
Additionally, the survey highlighted skepticism regarding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s commitment to the agreement. 41% of respondents tended not to believe that Netanyahu would fulfill his part, while 38% believed that he would. The division between the political camps was significant, with 72% of right-wing voters having faith in Netanyahu, compared to 70% of center-left voters who did not believe in him.
The survey, conducted on September 6-7, garnered responses from 517 participants, making it a representative sample of the adult population in Israel aged 18 and older, including Jews and Arabs. The maximum sampling error in the survey is 4.3%.
Overall, the survey suggests that potential leadership changes within Likud could impact the strength of the coalition, with both Nir Barkat and Yoav Galant potentially bringing in additional mandates.