Portugal Braces for Weekend Storm: Heavy Rain and Wind Expected
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A new atmospheric depression is set to bring unsettled weather to Portugal this Saturday, December 27, 2025, with heavy rainfall and strong winds anticipated across much of the country. While temperatures are expected to rise slightly, the cold will persist, and authorities are urging residents to prepare for potentially hazardous conditions.
Weekend Weather Overview
Following the Christmas period, a depression originating from a weakening cold air pocket over the ocean will influence the weather pattern. This system will bring instability, particularly to southern regions. Although temperatures will see a modest increase, the extremely cold temperatures experienced earlier this week – between -3 and 6ºC – are unlikely to return. Northern areas will also experience slightly higher highs, while the South may remain cooler due to increased cloud cover.
“Instability appears to be moderate, and electrical activity also appears to be dispersed,” one meteorologist stated, however, high-resolution models, such as HARMONIE-AROME from AEMET, indicate the potential for locally intense precipitation, especially in the Algarve and Baixo Alentejo. Precipitation lines are expected to move from Southwest to Northeast.
Yellow Warning Issued for Heavy Precipitation
Given the recent difficulties in forecasting, the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has already issued a yellow warning for heavy precipitation. Forecasters caution that there is a degree of uncertainty in the predictions, meaning rainfall could be more or less intense than currently anticipated. In addition to the Algarve and Alentejo, showers are expected in the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon and the Tagus Valleys, with a possibility of extending further north in the afternoon, though this remains unlikely.
The wind will also increase, generally blowing from the east, creating an unstable and unpleasant day. The Azores will experience both rain and wind, while Madeira will see less precipitation but still experience somewhat intense winds. .
Regional Forecasts: Mainland Portugal
Saturday’s weather across mainland Portugal will feature very cloudy skies south of the Tagus River, with less cloudiness to the north. Showers are expected to begin in the Algarve at dawn and progress northward throughout the day. By the afternoon, rain may reach the Central region, including Santarém and Leiria. Overnight, precipitation could reach the Central Cordillera (AçorLousãEstrela), with a possibility of snow above 1000 meters. North of the mountain range, no rain is expected. Thunderstorms are possible in the southern region.
Winds will blow from the east, moderate to strong in the highlands and along the Central/South coast and Algarve (30 to 40km/h), with gusts up to 70km/h in exposed areas. In the North and sheltered inland areas, winds will be generally low, between 10 and 15km/h.
Temperatures will see a slight increase in the North and Center, while only the minimum temperature will rise in the South. Overnight lows will generally be near 0ºC in the Interior (or below), with frost formation, and between 2 and 7ºC on the coast. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach 11-12ºC in Porto and Lisbon, 15ºC in Faro, but only 8-9ºC in Bragança, Vila Real, or Castelo Branco.
Sea conditions will be relatively calm on the northern West Coast (1 meter), with waves up to 2 meters on the southernmost West Coast and in the Algarve (2 meters). Water temperatures will range from 13-14ºC to 15-16ºC, respectively.
Azores and Madeira: Island Weather
The Azores will experience periods of very cloudy skies with open areas in the Central and Eastern Group Islands. Persistent precipitation is likely on Flores and Corvo Islands, potentially strong at times, with showers on the Islands of the Central Group, especially Faial, São Jorge, and Pico, from the afternoon onwards. São Miguel and Santa Maria are expected to remain dry.
Winds will blow from the Southeast, moderate to strong (25 to 40km/h), with gusts up to 65km/h in exposed locations. Temperatures will be very close between minimum and maximum in the Western Islands, with high humidity and fog forecast throughout the archipelago. Sea waves will reach up to 2 meters, with water temperatures around 17ºC.
In Madeira, a Northwest flow will bring more clouds to the North slopes and mountainous regions, and more sun to the Southeast, including Funchal. Rain, usually light, may occur in mountainous regions, northern slopes of Madeira Island, and Porto Santo. Winds will blow from the Northwest, generally moderate (25 to 35km/h), occasionally more intense (35 to 40km/h) with gusts up to 55km/h in high areas. Temperatures will remain relatively stable, with sea waves up to 1-2 meters and water temperatures around 19ºC.
Looking Ahead
While snow is not anticipated, the cold weather will continue. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the weather in January, and forecasters will continue to monitor the situation closely.
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