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LAS VEGAS, February 06, 2026 – Sportsbooks are quietly hoping for a defensive slugfest in Super Bowl LX, as the unusually low over/under of 45.5 points threatens their bottom line if the game turns into a high-scoring affair.
Low Total, High Stakes for Bookmakers
Table of Contents
The Super Bowl LX over/under currently sits at 45.5, the ninth-lowest in the last 40 years and the lowest since 2016.
- The current Super Bowl over/under is 45.5, the ninth-lowest in 40 seasons.
- Sharp bettors initially favored the under,but public money is now shifting towards the over.
- Prop bets, notably anytime touchdown scorers, pose a important risk to sportsbook profits in a high-scoring game.
At 45.5, according to DraftKings odds as of Friday afternoon, Sunday’s matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots is the ninth-lowest Super Bowl over/under in the past 40 seasons. It’s the lowest as Super Bowl 50 in 2016, which featured a 24-10 Denver Broncos victory over the Carolina Panthers with a total of 44.
Historically, the over has hit 29 times, the under 28 times, with one push, excluding Super Bowl I, which lacks complete data, according to research.
Early Bets Signal a Contrarian Trend
Sharp bettors initially jumped on the under,driving the total down from an opening line of 46.5 and 46. Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, noted the significant action on the under, stating, “45 is the key number there; don’t see it going lower than that.” However, Feazel and other bookmakers anticipate a surge in bets on the over as the game draws closer.
“It’s a Super Bowl, so you’re going to take money on the over, just how it goes,” Feazel said.”People want to see an exciting game and I don’t blame them, so you’re going to see more action on the over.”
that shift is already underway. As of this weekend, theScore Bet reported that 58.4% of bets were on the over,while DraftKings and BetMGM each reported slightly more than half of wagers supporting a higher-scoring game. John Ewing, media insights manager at BetMGM, expects the total to “continue to climb again as more casual bettors come in to place their wagers.”
Prop Bets Add to the Bookmakers’ Concerns
The potential for a high-scoring game isn’t just about the point total; it’s about the cascading effect on prop bets. anytime touchdown scorer props are consistently the most popular, and a shootout would increase the likelihood of many of those bets hitting, cutting into sportsbook profits.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is currently the leader in that market, listed at -110 to score a touchdown, according to DraftKings. He’s also the most-bet player at BetMGM and theScore Bet.Other popular prop plays include Kenneth Walker III (-190), Cooper Kupp (+260), and Drake Maye (+275).
Beyond touchdown props, yardage props and more unusual bets also pose a risk. These include wagers like 2.5 players to have a pass attempt (over +160), whether a flea-flicker will be attempted (yes +210), and the possibility of an “octopus” – a player scoring a touchdown followed by a successful two-point conversion (+1500).
“I can go down a whole list of props where they bet ’em and if they hit, we’re going to be losers because they’ve taken a lot of dogs, a lot of long shots on some different types of bets,” said Johnny Avello, director of DraftKings Sportsbook. “It doesn’t matter who wins — if this game ends up 34 to 31 somebody, that will not be a good result, because that means there’s been a lot of touchdown scorers, there’s
