Lukashenko, the strange “winner” of the Wagner mutiny

2023-06-27 18:02:55

► What role did Belarus play in resolving the Wagner Group mutiny?

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has been presented, since June 24, by Russia as the mediator of the negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Evgueni Prigojine which made it possible to put an end to the mutiny of the Wagner group. On Tuesday June 27, Alexander Lukashenko recounted with satisfaction having taken the initiative in the negotiations after a telephone call on the morning of June 24 with Vladimir Putin during which the Russian president allegedly said that he was unable to reach Yevgueni Prigojine. But it is likely that Alexander Lukashenko will embellish the truth.

According to the independent Russian media Meduza, citing sources close to the Kremlin, it was on the contrary Prigojine who sought to join Vladimir Putin that day. The Russian president would have refused to exchange directly with the head of Wagner, entrusting this task to Anton Vaino, head of the presidential administration, and Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the Security Council of Russia. “Prigojine needed a trusted third party to come out and keep up appearances. This is where Lukashenko came inrelates a source of Meduza. He likes to be talked about, that’s why he accepted. »

► Will Belarus become the new base of the Wagner group?

With the mutiny over, the Kremlin spokesman said charges against Yevgeny Prigozhin would be dropped, and Wagner’s boss “would go to Belarus” – where he was expected this Tuesday, June 27. Vladimir Putin offered three options to the fighters of the Wagner group: return to civilian life, integration into the regular army or departure for Belarus following their boss.

Wagner should continue to operate one way or another. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Monday that the mercenary group would continue its activities in Mali and the Central African Republic. The Belarusian president stresses that his country will benefit from the” experience “ Wagner’s fighters.

But will Putin let a man he called a “traitor” lead this group of fighters for a long time? And will Lukashenko accept to see many fighters beyond his control settling on his territory? “Neither Putin nor Lukashenko gave concrete elements in their recent speechesnotes Pavel Slounkine, a former Belarusian diplomat. It is therefore not excluded that the details are still being negotiated. »

► What are the consequences for the regime of Alexander Lukashenko?

Several analysts consider that Lukashenko emerges as a winner from this crisis. Indeed, he is praised by Russian and Belarusian television as the one who helped preserve peace in Russia. “If Russia were to collapse tomorrow, Belarus would be in rubble,” he said on Tuesday. But he might as well talk about his diet.

Alexander Lukashenko is indeed in a situation of total vassalage with regard to Vladimir Putin, to whom he owes his survival during a revolution which failed to overthrow him in 2020. Since then, the sovereignty of Belarus has considerably reduced, with the deployment of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers on its territory, which has been used as a rear base for the invasion of Ukraine since 2022, as well as Russian nuclear weapons.