Macron, from comfortable re-election to casseroles in a wasted year

2023-05-07 19:56:31

From an apparently comfortable re-election to unpopularity and pans. This Sunday marks the first year of the second term of the French president, Emmanuel Macron. Some 365 days that have led to one of the most delicate periods of his presidency: the crisis over the raising the minimum retirement age from 62 to 64 years (with 43 years of contributions to receive a full pension). While the beginnings of a term — even in the case of a re-election — used to be in France a period of grace and presidential initiative, this time they have turned out to be complicated, practically monopolized by a single measure. A pothole that threatens to mark the rest of the centrist leader’s five-year term.

“The French people did not extend the mandate that is ending. This new town, different from that of five years ago, entrusted a new president with a new mandate”, Macron assured on May 7 of last year in the act of investiture in the Élysée Palace. A year later, few Frenchmen have a glimpse of this “new” head of state. This first year of Macron II has returned him to his original box, the one that does him the most political damage: that of “president of the rich”.

Up to 65% of the French consider that their policies favor the “more affluent”, according to a poll by Elabe for BFM TV, published at the end of April. A percentage that rose ten points in the last year. In parallel, his popularity has fallen significantly: from 38% of the French who trusted him in May last year to only 25% today, according to an opinion survey by the same institute. It represents the lowest confidence levels since the yellow vest revolt at the end of 2018.

A “failed” first year

These 365 days “have represented a political failure. Although Macron has managed to adopt his pension reform, it has shown that it will be very difficult for him to govern without an absolute majority in the National Assembly”, explained to EL PERIÓDICO DE CATALUNYA, from the Prensa Ibérica group, the political scientist Agathe Cagé, president of the consultancy Compass Label. Despite having carried out one of the most iconic – and unpopular – measures of his program, he emerges weakened from the current social conflict. The fact of having approved it with a “decree” and with all the unions and close to 70% of the French, according to polls, against it has come at a price. Pretty high.

Following the enactment of that measure on April 15, the president proposed “100 days for reassurance and action”. A period that many compared to the 100 days of Napoleon that ended with his defeat at Waterloo. Beyond that historical anecdote, this 100-day deadline given by Macron was a way of acknowledging that this year had been a failure, a waste. “It is surprising that he announces 100 days to calm the country when in reality this term usually occurs at the beginning of a term, not at the beginning of the second year,” says Cagé.

“Macron is trying to buy time,” says journalist Ludovic Vigogne, who follows the right and center for the liberal daily L’Opinion. After a few first months of the year focused on international politics and in which he left his prime minister, Élisabeth Borne, at the forefront of the pension powder keg, the president multiplied displacements in French territory since the end of April. Some of these visits have been hectic and trade unionists have they organize casseroles. But they also remember the “great debate” at the beginning of 2019, in part, a covert campaign for the Europeans of that year that helped him to overcome the situation after the difficult period of the yellow vests.

Twelve months after starting his second term, the French president is going through one of the most difficult periods due to the pension reform

Will he achieve the same this time? Will he land on his feet again? “Macron experienced many crises in his first term (yellow vests, covid-19, the Ukrainian war…). His environment trusts that four years is a long time and there may be some moment, some crisis, that will allow him to overcome the situation”, emphasizes Vigogne. Trust the time factor. In France there will be no elections until the European ones next year. This leeway, however, could be a double-edged sword.

War of succession

Despite the wave of protests in recent months —the most massive in this 21st century—, the centrist leader does not seem willing to make major social concessions. This is shown by the legislative agenda for the coming months: a law on the “green industry”, a text so that small companies with benefits distribute them a little better with their employees or a labor reform that will force you to work and train for 15 or 20 hours to those who receive the French equivalent of the minimum vital income.

After a first year marked by the management of inflation, the difficult approval of the budgets —the Executive resorted up to ten times to the controversial decree 49.3 for this— and the pension reform, what is foreseen in the second is part of the continuity. “Macron gives the feeling of not having great proposals for the future of France,” criticizes Cagé. Last year, during the presidential campaign, the president “thought a lot about his re-election, it was practically his obsession. But he did not reflect too much on what he was going to do nor who would I name in Matignon”, says Vigogne, author of the book The dayless (a pun on the hundred days) about the first lethargic months of this second term.

Many see in that period the roots of the current difficulties. Then, the macronismo lost the absolute majority in the National Assembly, something unusual in France. He then also appointed Prime Minister Borne, a decision made at the last moment after Macron was on the verge of choosing Catherine Vautrinfrom the orbit of the Republican right.

One year later, Borne comes out very weak of the pulse for pensions. She has established herself as “the most unpopular prime minister” of the Macronist presidency, recalls Vigogne. Although many speculate about the expiration date of the current prime minister, the difficulty in naming a successor is the lack of candidates who serve the president to compensate for her main problem at the moment: the lack of an absolute majority in the National Assembly.

In addition, some of the Matignon hopefuls – the Minister of the Interior, Gerald Darmaninor the Economy, Bruno the Mayor— They are already thinking about his possible candidacy in the 2027 presidential elections. Macron will not be eligible for re-election due to the constitutional limitation of mandates. The “war of succession has already begun”, recalls Vigogne. Among potential contenders, such as former Prime Minister Edouard Philippethe feeling is growing that, if they want to have options in these elections, “they will have to distance themselves from the current president,” defends this political reporter.