Major U.S. investment banks head into third-quarter earnings this week following a profitable first half of 2026, facing pressure from a sharp climb in long-term borrowing costs. S&P 500 futures remained little changed on Sunday night as traders balanced strong projected earnings growth against surging interest rates and geopolitical tensions.
Wall Street Banks Report Earnings This Week
JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo report third-quarter results on Tuesday, officially kicking off the major bank earnings season. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock follow on Wednesday. Charles Schwab, BNY Mellon, and U.S. Bancorp report on Thursday. Wall Street’s largest financial institutions entered the second half of 2026 riding one of their most profitable six-month runs in at least a decade.
Oleg Parashchak, CEO and Founder of Finance Media Holding, pointed out that the worsening mood stems from questions regarding the capacity of U.S. lenders to absorb elevated funding expenses and whether top-line expansion can counteract dearer borrowing. Mike Mayo stated that for the first half of the year it is almost like everybody won, and now that might not be the case. Anticipating the second half of 2026, Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala foresees softer capital-markets performance than the initial six months, casting doubt on how long the current underwriting and trading cycle can endure.
Equities Desks Track Trading Revenue and Deal Volumes
Factoring in analyst projections gathered by Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs—scheduled to report Tuesday—is projected to lead the pack with $1.5 billion in equity-trading revenue, wait, $5.1 billion in equity-trading revenue, with Morgan Stanley at $4.9 billion and JPMorgan at $4.5 billion. Bank of America’s equities unit is seen at $2.6 billion. Equities trading desks are poised to deliver another strong showing, with projections pointing to nearly $19 billion in collective stock revenue among the top five American lenders, representing a change from the opening half of the year.
Trading results are expected to bring the most immediate evidence for a Wall Street slowdown. During September, leaders across the banking sector signaled a moderation in deal volumes, specifically within fixed income, contrasting with the hectic pace witnessed earlier in the spring. Meanwhile, dealmaking activity has felt the strain of higher financing costs.
Economic Reports Arrive Alongside Corporate Results
U.S. economic data is heavy after the Columbus Day holiday, highlighted by the September consumer price index (CPI) report Wednesday and September producer price index (PPI) and retail sales Thursday. The upcoming earnings reports arrive alongside a heavy calendar of macroeconomic data.
Projections calculated by FactSet’s John Butters show the S&P 500 on track for a 29.6% increase in quarterly profits, securing a fourth consecutive period of earnings expansion exceeding 25% that is fueled by artificial intelligence data center construction. Despite pressures from the 10-year Treasury yield breaching levels not seen since 2002 and Brent crude futures last trading above $104 a barrel, overall corporate earnings expectations remain steady. Brian Leonard, portfolio manager of Keeley Gabelli Small Cap Dividend Fund, noted that investors have narrowed in on whether companies can withstand what is happening, pass along costs, continue to grow margins, and ensure the future is better than the most recent past.
Third-quarter earnings — particularly from tech and large-cap names — will be decisive in propping up a market that is wobbling across most other sectors. With high oil prices and surging rates pressuring valuations, earnings growth is the key.
Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management
The widest expected swings sit in smaller names.
