Kathmandu, Nepal – To combat the ever-present threat of zoonotic influenza, a new spatial risk assessment tool called the Zoonotic Influenza Distribution and Ranking (ZIDAR) system has been piloted in Nepal. This innovative approach aims to bolster pandemic preparedness and strengthen surveillance across human, animal, and environmental sectors.
What is ZIDAR and why is it important for pandemic preparedness?
- A new tool, ZIDAR, maps zoonotic influenza hotspots in Nepal.
- It uses a “One Health” approach, integrating human, animal, and environmental data.
- High-risk zones identified include Kathmandu Valley, Pokhara, Bharatpur, and southern border regions.
- ZIDAR helps target surveillance and preventive interventions effectively.
Zoonotic influenza, a disease that jumps from animals to humans, poses a significant risk to public health, agriculture, and ecosystems, particularly in the WHO South-East Asia Region. Recognizing this persistent danger, the Infectious Hazard Management unit, in collaboration with the University of Queensland and the WHO Country Office for Nepal, developed the ZIDAR system.
The ZIDAR framework is built on a comprehensive “One Health” approach. This means it brings together expertise from human health, animal health, and environmental sectors to identify where diseases are most likely to emerge. It pinpoints high-risk “interfaces”—places where humans, livestock, and wildlife commonly interact. By combining expert knowledge with detailed spatial data analysis, ZIDAR ranks these interfaces to map out areas with the greatest potential for zoonotic influenza outbreaks.
ZIDAR-H suitability map
In Nepal, the ZIDAR system was implemented through a process guided by experts and validated against historical outbreak data. The resulting model highlighted several key “hotspot” zones. These include the Kathmandu Valley, Pokhara, Bharatpur, and areas along the southern border. These regions are characterized by a convergence of high human and animal populations, combined with fragmented habitats and migratory bird flyways. These findings are invaluable for directing surveillance efforts and implementing preventive measures where they are needed most.
The ZIDAR system utilizes R-based modeling and an interactive web application. This allows policymakers to explore transmission risks across 18 different interfaces. These range from live bird markets and farms with low biosecurity standards to migratory bird routes and backyard poultry systems. The tool demonstrates strong predictive capabilities, with AUC scores of 0.87 for wildlife interfaces and 0.85 for animal interfaces, confirming its reliability for decision-making.
As a decision support system (DSS), ZIDAR represents a significant step forward in tailoring “One Health” strategies to combat zoonotic threats at the local level. It enables evidence-based prioritization for disease surveillance and control. This supports early warning systems, guides targeted vaccination campaigns, and facilitates cross-border biosecurity coordination. The detailed risk maps offer crucial intelligence for both national health programs and local response planning, which is vital for effective pandemic preparedness.
This initiative aligns with the Infectious Hazard Management unit’s commitment to operationalizing the High Threat Pathogen (HTP) framework. It translates complex risk assessments into practical surveillance priorities, directly supporting the unit’s goal of strengthening early warning systems with locally adapted, “One Health” decision support tools.
ZIDAR end-user elicitation process
