Micron Technology alone drove 51% of all earnings-per-share revisions for the S&P 500 since the US conflict with Iran began, according to Goldman Sachs Research cited in a Seeking Alpha report dated April 20, 2026.
The chipmaker’s 2026 consensus EPS growth estimate stands at 605%, a figure that starkly contrasts with the broader market where the median S&P 500 company has seen no adjustment to its earnings outlook over the same period. This divergence highlights how a narrow group of companies is propping up index-wide profit expectations.
Exxon Mobil alongside Micron has accounted for more than 60% of the collective upward revision to 2026 S&P 500 EPS estimates since the war started, per Ben Snider, a Goldman Sachs strategist quoted in Yahoo Finance. The energy and information technology sectors together have driven nearly all the positive momentum in earnings forecasts.
The S&P 500 has risen 12% from its March 30 low, closing above 7,000 for the first time last week, as investors reacted to improving geopolitical sentiment and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings. Big banks including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America reported better-than-anticipated first-quarter results, citing resilient consumer spending despite elevated fuel prices.
PepsiCo’s CEO Ramon Laguarta told Yahoo Finance that consumers have not pulled back amid $4-per-gallon gasoline, reinforcing the view that demand remains intact even under cost pressures. His comments were echoed by Tom Hayes of Great Hill, who described markets as a “weighing machine” in the long run, where fundamentals eventually outweigh short-term emotional swings.
Snider noted that the recent improvement in geopolitical outlook could broaden earnings revisions beyond the current leaders, potentially increasing market breadth if the trend continues. For now, yet, the rally remains heavily dependent on a few outsized contributors.
How Micron’s revision compares to the rest of the index
While Micron’s earnings estimates have surged, over half of the S&P 500 companies have seen no change to their 2026 EPS forecasts since the war began. This means the index’s apparent strength is not reflective of widespread improvement but rather concentrated in a few outliers.
The median company’s stagnant outlook contrasts sharply with the index-level 4% rise in consensus earnings for 2026 and 2027 reported by Goldman Sachs. That gap reveals a market where averages are being lifted by extremes.
Why the rally may depend on geopolitical stability
Both sources tie the earnings upgrades to hopes of a de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with Yahoo Finance noting the market’s sensitivity to Strait of Hormuz developments. Snider warned that any reversal in geopolitical sentiment could quickly undermine the current earnings momentum.
The sectors benefiting most — information technology and energy — are particularly exposed to global supply chains and commodity flows that could be disrupted by renewed tensions. Their outperformance is thus conditional on sustained calm.
What happens if earnings breadth fails to improve
If the current trend continues and only a handful of companies drive index-level gains, the rally could face scrutiny over its sustainability. Concentrated leadership increases vulnerability to sector-specific shocks or disappointing results from the leaders.
Snider suggested that broadening the earnings improvement across more companies would be a healthier sign for market durability. Without that expansion, the index’s advance may remain fragile despite hitting new highs.
Why are Micron’s earnings estimates rising so sharply?
The sources do not specify the exact drivers behind Micron’s 605% projected EPS growth, but the context ties it to improved demand outlook and possibly inventory normalization in the semiconductor sector following war-related disruptions.
Could the market rally continue without broader earnings improvements?
According to Ben Snider, a continuation of the geopolitical improvement could help broaden the earnings outlook, but if it does not, the rally’s dependence on a few stocks may limit further gains and increase downside risk if those companies falter.
