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Since the killings of leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, tensions in the Middle East have been rising. An attack on Israel by Iran and its allies is expected. What is known about the situation in the region.
In light of a feared attack from Iran and its allies on Israel, intense diplomatic efforts are underway to calm the situation in the Middle East. However, despite calls from many Western and Arab states for both sides to de-escalate, there are no signs of rapprochement between Israel on one side and Iran and its allies on the other. Since the killings of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which Israel is blamed for, and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, a retaliation from Iran’s allies is anticipated. Answers to key questions regarding the situation in the Middle East.
When will Iran and its allies attack?
This is the question around which everything revolves. In the threats from Tehran and the Lebanese Hezbollah, there have been repeated mentions of the “coming days.” The US news portal Axios reported on Sunday, referring to assessments from US and Israeli government sources, that Iran could begin an attack as early as Monday. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly communicated this to his G7 counterparts in a video call, mentioning a time window of the next 24 to 48 hours. It is expected that Hezbollah, Hamas, the Yemeni Houthi militia, as well as other Islamist groups from Syria and Iraq will support Iran. A multi-front war may lie ahead for Israel.
However, there have been no concrete indications of an imminent attack so far. “No definitive picture” of the expected attacks is emerging, according to Israeli broadcaster Channel 12. Meanwhile, pressure is mounting on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from all sides, reports ARD correspondent Clemens Verenkotte. “We have no strategy,” criticized former Israeli army spokesman Ron Kochav on Channel 2, pointing at Netanyahu’s government. The public should have a “clear overview of the state of affairs,” the ex-army spokesman continued.
How strong are Iran and Hezbollah?
Looking at a map, one can see that Iran’s sphere of influence extends in a crescent shape over Iraq, Syria up to the Mediterranean coastal Lebanon. In recent years, Iran has invested billions in its defense. The regular Iranian army and the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) count over half a million soldiers, in addition to thousands of volunteer fighters. Iran also possesses a large arsenal of long-range missiles, warships, combat aircraft, and drones, which could potentially hit any part of Israel.
Additionally, Iran invests heavily in equipping so-called proxies, referring to armed supporter groups like Hezbollah. Western estimates suggest that the terror militia from Lebanon possesses around 150,000 rockets, drones, and cruise missiles – about ten times its arsenal compared to the last war with Israel in 2006. It has tens of thousands of supporters and members and has effectively created a state within a state in Lebanon.
How is Israel preparing?
Israel has placed its army on high alert over the weekend, reported Israeli radio. Netanyahu had declared, following the relevant threats from Tehran, that his country was prepared for any scenario “at the highest level” – “both defensively and offensively.” Fighter jets were reportedly patrolling the country’s airspace and ground troops were deployed at the borders. Furthermore, it is expected in Israel that the Lebanese Hezbollah plans a “strong retaliation” for the assassination of its commander.
Despite the threats, the Israeli civil defense has not changed its instructions to the public so far. The population is advised to remain vigilant, said a military spokesman. ARD correspondent Jörg Poppendieck reports from Tel Aviv on tagesschau24: “There are fewer people on the streets, but people are still going to work as normal.” The mood is “still calm and relaxed.”
In larger parts of Israel, the use of the GPS satellite system has been disrupted, according to ARD correspondents, including in the greater Tel Aviv area. Users are experiencing inaccurate locations displayed in navigation applications, for example. “This indicates that preparations are underway,” says Poppendieck on tagesschau24. The positioning system also helps drones find their target. Even before the Iranian massive attack with hundreds of rockets and drones in April, the Israeli army stated that it had deliberately disrupted the GPS system. In response to an inquiry about the recent disruption, the army has now said: “no comment.”
Moreover, Israel is likely relying on a US-led protective coalition that could intercept airstrikes as it did in April. Possible partners for protection also include the UK, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. An important role is also played by Israel’s own air defense systems with the Iron Dome.
What role are the USA playing?
Israel can likely count on the support of the US and probably other allies in intercepting rockets, cruise missiles, and drones. The Washington government announced on Friday that it would increase its military presence in the Middle East. Additional warships and fighter jets would be sent to protect US forces and to defend Israel, the Pentagon stated. The commander of the US regional command was also set to visit. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had promised his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant “ironclad support” for self-defense, as the Pentagon subsequently reported.
US President Joe Biden is reportedly set to hold a meeting with his security advisors regarding the situation in the Middle East on Monday, which Vice President Kamala Harris will also attend. In direct talks with Netanyahu, Biden has reportedly urged him very strongly to reach an agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza. He also expressed his concern that the killing of Hamas’s foreign chief Haniyeh occurred at an inopportune time – at a moment when the US hoped to finalize discussions on a ceasefire. Biden had previously criticized the killing publicly, without directly blaming Israel.
Which states want to mediate?
Leading the way, the regional powers Qatar, Egypt, and Jordan continue to strive for mediation between Israel and the Iran-Hamas alliance. Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi made a rare visit to Tehran. There he spoke on Sunday with his Iranian counterpart Ali Bagheri. The Jordanian Foreign Ministry stated that Safadi would also convey a message from King Abdullah II to Iranian President Massoud Peseschkian. It was the first visit by a Jordanian government official to Iran since 2004. Jordan is considered a close ally of the West and helped intercept Iranian rockets and drones in April. Jordan signed a peace treaty with neighboring Israel in 1994.
Exceptional visit: No Jordanian government official, like Foreign Minister Safadi (l), has been to Tehran since 2004.
Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdel-Atti also urged, according to official statements from Cairo, in a phone call with Bagheri that all parties must exercise restraint to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control. Egypt had already signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
However, in diplomatic circles, there are hardly any optimistic voices despite all efforts, said ARD correspondent Poppendieck on tagesschau24. There is “much activity on the diplomatic floor.” Since the killing of Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran has consulted with several Arab countries, including Jordan, Egypt, Oman, and Qatar. However, Iranian media reports suggest that Iran has so far rejected all direct mediation attempts. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that while the country does not seek an escalation of the situation, Israel must be punished for the assassination of Haniyeh “to prevent further instability.”
The G7 industrial nations called on all parties to show moderation. The recent events threaten to ignite a larger conflict in the region, the countries jointly stated. Therefore, the involved parties should refrain from the “current destructive cycle of retaliatory violence, diffuse tensions and constructively engage in de-escalation.” The G7 includes Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Japan, Canada, and the USA.
Iran’s sphere of influence extends in a crescent shape across Iraq, Syria to the Mediterranean coastal Lebanon.
How is Germany behaving?
Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) has excluded the participation of German soldiers in a mission to protect Israel at least for the moment. Any involvement of German soldiers is “completely unimaginable” for him, he said over the weekend on the sidelines of his visit to South Korea. The situation in the Middle East is evaluated daily together with the Foreign Office and the Chancellery, Pistorius added. “We are preparing for what might come, such as an evacuation. But at the moment we are only in the phase of preparations, not of actions.”
Meanwhile, CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter has demanded the Bundeswehr’s participation in the protective coalition for Israel. “In view of the impending Iranian attack, the federal government must finally wake up and also offer military assistance to Israel for defense,” he told Spiegel. “If Israel’s security truly is a German national interest, the federal government, particularly the Chancellery, must finally engage in realpolitik,” he said. The federal government’s anti-Semitism commissioner, Felix Klein, also deemed military German support, at least upon Israel’s request, to be “justified” in the Funke Media Group newspapers.
Were there new attacks over the weekend?
There were mutual attacks between the Lebanese Hezbollah and Israel, but they did not exceed the previous scale. In an Israeli drone strike on Monday morning in Lebanon, two people were killed according to Lebanese reports. Hezbollah again shelled northern Israel with dozens of rockets. According to Israeli reports, there were no significant damages as most projectiles were intercepted. Two soldiers were lightly wounded near Kibbutz Ayelet HaShahar.
In the Gaza Strip, there were again numerous injuries and deaths due to airstrikes, according to Palestinian reports. The Israeli military continued its attacks in other areas of the Gaza Strip. The army reported that it had attacked 50 military targets throughout the area within 24 hours. It also discovered a three-meter deep tunnel underneath the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. The structure, which could also have allowed vehicles to pass through, was destroyed.
Off the coast of Yemen, the Houthi militia attacked a freighter for the first time in two weeks. The pro-Iranian group stated that it fired several rockets at the merchant ship “Groton.” The security firm Ambrey and the British maritime authority UKMTO confirmed the attacks on the ship sailing under the Liberian flag. No one was injured, the crew was safe, and the ship was redirected to a nearby port.
What protective measures are other countries taking?
Numerous countries are now calling on their citizens to leave both Lebanon and Iran. Among others, Japan, Turkey, France, Italy, the UK, and previously the USA and Germany have urged nationals to leave Lebanon. The UK also withdrew the families of embassy staff in Beirut due to the unstable security situation. The Canadian government urged its citizens not to travel to Israel due to the “unpredictable security situation.” Several international airlines have temporarily suspended flights to the region.