As baseball fans eagerly anticipate the start of the 2024 season, the usual suspects dominate the conversation when it comes to Most Valuable Player predictions. Names like Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Mookie Betts consistently appear at the top of the odds lists. But beyond these established stars, a compelling question arises: who are the dark horse MVP candidates poised to surprise us this year? The search for these under-the-radar players is a favorite pastime for baseball enthusiasts, and recent online discussions, like those on platforms such as Reddit, are revealing some intriguing possibilities.
The MVP race is notoriously unpredictable. Whereas consistent performance is key, a player’s narrative – a breakout season, overcoming adversity, or leading an unexpected team success – often plays a significant role in swaying voters. This year, several players are positioned to capitalize on those narratives, potentially disrupting the established order. FanGraphs, for example, currently lists Ohtani as the favorite with 8/1 odds as of March 18, 2024, followed by Acuña at 10/1. Fangraphs MVP Odds. But the long season allows for shifts in momentum and the emergence of unexpected contenders.
Beyond the Favorites: Identifying Potential Breakouts
One name frequently mentioned in discussions about potential dark horses is Bobby Witt Jr., the shortstop for the Kansas City Royals. Witt Jr. Demonstrated significant growth in his second season, hitting .277 with 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 2023. MLB.com Player Profile – Bobby Witt Jr. If he can build on that foundation and lead the Royals towards a more competitive standing in the American League Central, he could garner serious MVP consideration. The Royals, after years of rebuilding, are hoping to challenge for a playoff spot, and Witt Jr. Is central to those aspirations.
Another player generating buzz is Gunnar Henderson, the Baltimore Orioles’ young third baseman. Henderson, the 2022 International League MVP, quickly established himself as a key contributor to the Orioles’ surprising 2023 success, hitting .255 with 28 home runs and 89 RBIs. ESPN Player Profile – Gunnar Henderson. The Orioles are widely expected to contend for the AL East title, and Henderson’s continued development will be crucial to their chances. His ability to impact the game both offensively and defensively makes him a compelling MVP candidate.
The Appeal of Established Players in New Situations
Sometimes, a change of scenery can unlock a player’s full potential. Several players who switched teams during the offseason could find themselves in prime position to make an MVP push. One such player is Juan Soto, now with the New York Yankees after being traded from the San Diego Padres. Soto, a three-time All-Star and former Silver Slugger winner, brings a proven track record of offensive excellence to the Bronx. Baseball-Reference Player Profile – Juan Soto. Playing in a larger market and with the added pressure of performing for the Yankees could elevate his game even further.
Similarly, Corbin Carroll, the Arizona Diamondbacks’ dynamic outfielder, is attracting attention. Carroll, the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year, showcased his exceptional speed and hitting ability, batting .285 with 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases. MLB.com Player Profile – Corbin Carroll. While he’s no longer a rookie, his continued growth and impact on the Diamondbacks’ lineup could make him a serious contender for the MVP award. The Diamondbacks’ success in the postseason last year has raised expectations, and Carroll will be expected to lead the charge.
The Importance of Team Success
MVP voting often favors players on winning teams. While individual statistics are important, a player’s ability to contribute to their team’s success is often the deciding factor. Here’s why players on teams expected to contend, like the Orioles and Yankees, have a significant advantage in the MVP race. Although, a player on a surprising team can too make a strong case, particularly if they are the driving force behind that team’s success.
The upcoming season promises to be filled with compelling storylines and unexpected twists. While the established stars will undoubtedly be in the mix, the potential for a dark horse MVP candidate to emerge is always present. The players mentioned above – Witt Jr., Henderson, Soto, and Carroll – all possess the talent and opportunity to make a serious run at the award. As the season unfolds, it will be fascinating to see which players rise to the occasion and challenge the frontrunners.
The next major checkpoint for these players and their teams will be the first week of April, as they begin to establish their form and set the tone for the season. Maintain an eye on their performance and how it impacts their respective teams’ standings.
What are your thoughts on the potential dark horse MVP candidates? Share your predictions and insights in the comments below.
