2025-06-19 13:50:00
Rookie Race Heats Up
The MLB Rookie of the Year race is underway, with a few standouts emerging, even if the overall class is considered somewhat lackluster.
- Wilson is the frontrunner in the American League.
- Baldwin leads the way among National League rookies.
- Shaw and Casparius are strong contenders in the NL.
Who are the leading contenders for the 2025 MLB Rookie of the Year awards? The race is heating up in both the American and National Leagues, with some impressive performances already on display. Let’s dive into the top contenders and see who’s making a splash.
American League
Top AL Contenders
Wilson, a throwback hitter, has been hitting .360 with only 18 strikeouts in 272 at-bats. He’s also getting on base at a .399 clip with 15 doubles, eight homers, 38 RBI, 39 runs, five steals and 2.6 WAR, making him the frontrunner in the AL. Given his minor league and college stats, it’s believable he’ll keep up the pace.
Anthony is supremely talented, but might not get enough playing time to catch up to Wilson. Caglianone is hitting .196/.212/.235 with zero home runs in his first 13 MLB games. It’s uncertain whether he can make up ground on Wilson. Dominguez has played in 59 games for the Yankees, hitting .236/.323/.382 with 0.1 WAR, however he could get very hot down the stretch.
Kristian Campbell and Yankees pitcher Will Warren are at +4000. Astros outfielder Cam Smith is also at +4000. He’s hitting .266/.336/.412 with 1.8 WAR, but isn’t listed higher in the odds.
The play
While Wilson looks like the likely winner, betting on him at the current odds might not be the best value. Cam Smith at longer odds could be worth considering.
National League
Top NL Contenders
Baldwin, a lefty-swinging catcher, is hitting .285/.333/.467 (121 OPS+) with 1.3 WAR through 47 games. He’d win the award for the best NL rookie to this point, but doesn’t play every day. His numbers are skewed by a hot streak. In the last 16 games, he’s hitting .136/.191/.273. So I’m looking elsewhere.
Ramírez has 10 homers and 11 doubles with a .242/.293/.458 (103 OPS+) slash line. He’s been a DH 26 times and a catcher 21 times. He’s been bad enough behind the plate (leading the majors with five passed balls, plus eight wild pitches and opposing runners are 27 of 30 against him in stolen bases) that he sports a negative WAR.
Casparius is interesting. He’s been a starter, reliever, the length guy behind an opener and pretty much anything in between for the Dodgers amid all their pitching injuries. He’s 5-1 with a 3.02 ERA (130 ERA+), 1.03 WHIP and 48 strikeouts against 10 walks in 47 ⅔ innings. If he moves into the Dodgers rotation for an extended stretch, he’ll accumulate a lot more value.
Misiorowski has only made one MLB start. Shaw has shown several flashes of being the guy to trust here and +1000 is a beautiful number. At 1.0 WAR he trails only Baldwin among NL rookie position players. Shaw is overall hitting .320/.301/.331 (83 OPS+), but he was terrible before an early-season demotion and has hit .267/.305/.389 with eight doubles, a homer, six RBI, 11 runs and seven steals in his 25 games since returning. Patrick is also a contender. Through 79 ⅔ innings, he’s posted a 3.50 ERA (113 ERA+) and 1.28 WHIP with 76 strikeouts. Do not count him out. He’s a better bet than Misiorowski for me.
The play
Shaw is the pick here, with Casparius and Patrick as potential longer shots.
