In recent months, images of panicked people arriving in huge queues at the entrance to gas stations to get some energy to heat the house in the winter have arrived from all over Europe. Russia is now threatening to invade Ukraine – and is even moving forces to the border. But what is behind the crisis?
In 2015, it was agreed to build a natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, under the Baltic Sea, 1200 kilometers long, in a project called Nord Stream 2. This, in addition to a pipeline already operating and called Nord Stream 2. The project is designed to double the amount of gas flowing from Russia to Germany. To Europe’s soaring gas needs, al in the face of the massive shift to green-clean energy and the attempt to get rid of more polluting energy sources like coal.
Construction of the pipeline was completed in September 2021, but it is not yet operational as Germany is delaying its approval due to the fact that the company is registered in Switzerland and not in Germany, despite rising gas prices. There seems to be more behind the refusal than just a technical matter of registering companies.
Eastern European countries fear a loss of revenue. But both the United States and Britain feared a rise in Russia’s power
In fact, the project has encountered various objections since its announcement. Eastern European countries passing older gas pipelines fear harm to their revenues, but the main opposition came from the Trump administration at the time and England who feared Russia’s increasing power and influence over Europe, especially Germany, with Russia already responsible for 40% of Europe’s gas supply. It is possible that economic considerations were also behind the American resistance, since the United States also exports gas to Europe.
For years the Russians and Germans have argued that the gas pipeline is a “pure business venture” and has nothing to do with politics, but now Trump’s fears seem to be materializing as Germany struggles to draw a hard line against Russia, like its other NATO allies, and Russia does not hesitate to use In energy as a political tool when it refused last year to increase gas supplies to Europe as a lever of political pressure even at the height of demand and in the face of a jump in gas prices.The International Energy Agency has blamed Moscow for contributing to rising gas prices due to supply cuts.
Last November, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the EU should face a choice between Ukraine and the approval of the gas pipeline. “We hope that our European friends understand that in the short term they will have to choose between relying on Russia as a carbon energy source with a huge new pipeline and supporting Ukraine and preferring peace and stability.”
Christine Berzin, a member of a research institute in the United States, states that Russia is winning this battle: “Everything related to Nord Stream 2 has so far been a victory for Russia. so”.
Now the situation reaches a boiling point, As the United States and Europe prepare for a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine and are required to use any pressure lever they have to prevent this, and Russia can and is expected to use the gas supply as a threat against any possible sanction they want to impose on it. The Biden administration is in continuous negotiations with a number of countries in Europe, the Middle East and Asia to increase gas production in the event that Russia invades Ukraine and cuts off gas supplies even further.
Why would Germany be hurt the most by this?
The country that will be most affected by such a development is of course Germany, and indeed it represents the more June side in the conflict with Russia. The Germans are trying to get the gas purchase from Russia out of the planned sanctions package, and only under heavy American pressure have they stated that the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline may be included in the package. Germany’s conciliatory line towards Russia can also be seen through Germany’s decision not to supply weapons to the threatened Ukraine unlike the United States, Britain and the Czech Republic. Similarly, the statement of the commander of the German navy contributes to the feeling that Germany is not really determined to fight Russia, when he said that Putin deserves respect and that Ukraine may have to give up the Crimean peninsula returning to Russia. He was forced to resign following the statement, but the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany called on the Germans to change their attitude towards the conflict.
The pipeline also creates conflict in the midst of American politics. Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is trying to lead sanctions against all companies involved in the pipeline, but the Biden administration opposes it because it believes it can be used as a lever of pressure against Russia. “Putin wants to see Nord Stream 2 run. If for some reason the project dies before a possible invasion, he will have fewer reasons not to invade Ukraine,” Senate Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Bob Menendez said.
How does gas relate to Russia’s crisis with Ukraine?
The issue of gas is also one of the points of friction between Russia and Ukraine itself. Russia has used gas several times in the past to put pressure on Ukraine by cutting supplies, but today Russia is dependent on Ukraine, as several other lucrative gas lines pass through Ukraine to Europe, which is another factor that increases Russia’s desire to invade a neighboring country. The establishment of Nord Stream 2 could also help Russia bypass Ukraine and be less dependent on it as a transit country.
The pipeline is therefore very important for Russia, both for increasing its influence on Europe and eliminating dependence on Ukraine, but also, and perhaps most importantly, financially. Russia relies on oil and gas production to supply its government with more than 40% of revenues. The new pipeline could contribute up to an additional $ 15 billion a year. To date, $ 11 billion has been invested in the project. Because of the importance of the gas pipeline, it is perhaps one of the most effective pressure levers against Russia. “The West needs every possible way of putting pressure on Russia to prevent it from invading Ukraine,” Berzin said. Soviet Union) and close the door on NATO enlargement. “These demands are inconsistent with Western values, so the West really cannot give up on Russia in this matter.”
The Russians, for their part, declare that the policy regarding the gas pipeline is the test of the power of European autonomy in relation to the United States. Edrei Kurtonov, director of the Russian Consulate for International Relations, said: “If the Nord Stream 2 project is canceled, and certainly can be, it will be proof that Europe is not a reliable partner, and that it can not work with the EU, because they can not agree on anything and can Make a decision there, so if you need something, you need to talk to the United States. ”
It is difficult to assess how this crisis – which includes politics, money and people who want to warm up in winter at reasonable prices, will end. Certainly it does not add calm to the energy market, stocks or international relations. The whole world is looking to the leaders who will learn to find a way out of the complicated situation without harming the countries and citizens who depend on them.