The most vulnerable among the CIS countries in the event of an aggravation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the imposition of tough sanctions by the West will be Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Moldova and Armenia. This is stated in a study by analysts of the international rating agency Moody’s, its content is reported by Forbes.
Thus, Belarus has a B3 rating with a negative outlook. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Moldova Moody’s assigned a rating of B3 with a stable outlook, Armenia – Ba3 with a stable outlook.
After the imposition of sanctions, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which depend on Russia for remittances, will suffer, analysts say. “A possible slowdown in the Russian economy will hit the creditworthiness of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan due to a decrease in remittances from labor migrants, which, according to the World Bank, account for 33% and 30% of the GDP of these countries, respectively,” the agency notes.
The weakening of the ruble will negatively affect the currencies of the CIS countries and increase liquidity risks. Vulnerable in this regard, Moody’s calls Belarus, Tajikistan and Georgia – countries with a high share of debt in foreign currency and weak reserves.
A sharp economic downturn in Russia will have a negative impact on the economy of Belarus, for which Russia is the largest trading partner, the study says.