Morocco‘s Ambitious Vision: From Emerging economy to Regional Powerhouse by 2035
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Morocco is undergoing a notable change, aiming to transcend its status as an emerging economy and establish itself as a “pivot power” on both regional and international stages, according to a new strategic note from the French Choiseul Institute. The report, penned by researcher Yassmina Asrarguès, outlines a long-term vision initiated under King Mohammed VI’s reign since 1999, focused on modernization and strategic partnerships.
A Two-Decade Foundation for Growth
The first two decades of King Mohammed VI’s rule were characterized by extensive infrastructure development and increased commercial openness. Now, Morocco’s “New Development Model” sets its sights on 2035, envisioning the Kingdom as a crucial link between Africa and Europe, and the “Sud global” and the West. This isn’t simply about building infrastructure; it’s about strategically reshaping the nation’s economic geography.
Infrastructure as a Catalyst for Change
Investment is no longer viewed as mere equipment, but as a key driver for national economic restructuring. The report highlights the central role of Tanger Med port, while also anticipating the impact of future projects like the Atlantic port of dakhla and a modernized national rail network.
A key element of this industrial strategy is attracting foreign investment in high-value sectors. The establishment of a battery materials factory in jorf Lasfar, boasting a production capacity of 70 gigawatt hours – enough to power nearly one million electric vehicles annually. This positions morocco firmly within global value chains.
Furthermore,Gotion High-Tech’s gigafactory in Kénitra represents a substantial investment,starting at $1.3 billion and possibly reaching $6.5 billion, with a target production capacity of around 100 gigawatt hours by 2026.
These developments signify a shift in the meaning of “Made in Morocco,” moving beyond a low-cost competitiveness model to one based on “best cost” – a combination of high quality, industrial reliability, and strategic geographical proximity to key markets, particularly as Europe seeks to diversify its supply chains away from asia.
Alongside economic ambitions, the report emphasizes the importance of a robust social state. The generalization of social protection launched during the Covid-19 pandemic in the summer of 2020 is described as a “bold and unprecedented” move for a middle-income country.
This initiative encompasses expanded health insurance, family allowances, retirement system reforms, and the implementation of “direct social support” by the end of 2023, all aimed at strengthening social cohesion and reducing inequalities. However, the report stresses that the success of these programs hinges on the effectiveness of the Unified Social Register in accurately identifying beneficiaries and ensuring the long-term financial sustainability of the initiatives, particularly through reform of the Compensation Fund.
The 2030 World Cup: A Catalyst for Structural Reform
The joint bid to host the 2030 World Cup with Spain and Portugal is viewed as more than just a sporting event; it’s a “time accelerator” for structural reforms. The event is projected to generate between 50,000 and 80,000 jobs in construction, tourism, and related service sectors. It also presents a strategic opportunity to enhance Morocco’s soft power and modernize urban infrastructure, provided it’s leveraged for enduring transformation extending beyond the competition itself.
Challenges Remain on the Path to 2035
Despite the optimistic outlook, the report acknowledges significant structural challenges. Water stress, threatening both agriculture and social stability, is a major concern. Territorial disparities between the dynamic coastal regions and rural areas also pose a hurdle.The report also highlights the need to translate economic growth into decent jobs for young people to address unemployment, and to cultivate a highly qualified elite capable of effective governance.
the Choiseul Institute believes Morocco’s unique combination of “hard power” – industry and infrastructure – with “soft power” – diplomacy and sport – and a strong social foundation, positions it as a model of stability in a volatile region and a reliable global partner.
