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NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Elliott Wave Analysis Points to Potential Rally to 26,700
The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) continues to demonstrate resilience, wiht recent price action supporting a bullish outlook according to analysis utilizing the Elliott Wave (EW) Principle.Despite initially anticipating a potential correction, current market behavior suggests a continued climb toward the 26,700 level is increasingly likely.
According to an update released on November 19,analysts previously identified the possibility of a larger W-4 correction,potentially ranging between 20,485 and 22,835. however, a key condition for confirming this scenario – a weekly close below 24,000 – was not met. As one analyst noted, the index “missed the ideal upside target [26700] by about 500 points or 2%,” a deviation considered notable given the typical precision observed in stock markets.
Fast forward to November 21, the NDX bottomed at 23,854, falling within the anticipated (minor) W-4 target zone, and closed the week at 24,239. Currently trading around 25,575, the index has remained consistently above the critical 24,000 threshold. This sustained performance reinforces the preferred scenario, as illustrated in Figure 1. Moreover, the November 21 low coincided with an ideal “low risk buy zone,” which is being advised as a potential trigger for swing trades.
[Placeholder for Figure 1: Intermediate-term Elliott Wave count for the NDX]
Key Warning Levels for Bullish Momentum
Traders are closely monitoring a series of warning levels to gauge the strength of the current uptrend. These levels – currently set at 25,369,25,158,24,873,24,542,and 23,854 – serve as potential stop-loss points. A daily close below any subsequent level increases the probability that the rally from the november 21 low has concluded by 20%. These levels will be adjusted upwards as prices continue to advance.
A deeper dive into the 65-minute chart, examined previously, revealed encouraging signals.The price action as the recent high has been “trending lower, overlapping,” indicating a corrective move poised for an eventual upward resolution. Importantly, “positive divergences ([green] arrows) are building in the technical indicators, suggesting that at this stage, the downside is losing strength, momentum, and selling pressure.”
Short-Term Outlook: Impulsive Rally in Progress
Applying the Elliott Wave Principle to the price action since the November 21 low confirms that the current rally is exhibiting characteristics of an impulsive move, characterized by five-wave advances interspersed with three-wave corrections.
Analysts anticipate the orange W-3 wave to peak around the 161.80% extension (~26,635), followed by the orange W-4 wave reaching 25,300 ± 100. A final W-5 wave is than expected to complete the gray W-iii at 25,900 ± 100. The ideal target zone for the gray W-v wave is 26,500 ± 250, bringing the index close to the larger, anticipated target of approximately 26,700 for the black W-3.
