Oklahoma City Thunder Projected to Repeat as NBA Champions, League GMs Predict
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The Oklahoma City Thunder are widely expected to defend their championship title in the 2025-2026 NBA season, according to an annual survey of all 30 league front offices. The results, released on Thursday, reveal overwhelming confidence in the Thunder’s ability to secure back-to-back victories – a feat not accomplished since the Golden State Warriors in 2018.
Thunder Dominate Championship Predictions
A remarkable 80% of NBA general managers selected the Thunder as the team most likely to win the championship, mirroring similar projections from ESPN’s offseason survey last month. This level of consensus is particularly noteworthy, as the survey methodology prevents teams from voting for themselves or players on their own roster, capping potential vote share at 97%.
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Denver Nuggets each garnered a few votes, while the Houston Rockets and New York Knicks each received a single selection. This demonstrates a significant gap in expectations between the Thunder and the rest of the league.
Conference Outlook: Thunder and Cavaliers Lead the Way
Beyond the championship race, the survey also highlighted the expected conference winners. Both Oklahoma City and Cleveland were identified as heavy favorites to win their respective conferences. The Thunder received first-place votes on 87% of ballots, with the remaining 10% selecting them in second place. The Nuggets secured 10% of the first-place votes, followed by the Rockets with a single vote.
In the Eastern Conference, the Cavaliers and Knicks were unanimously selected to finish within the top three. Cleveland received 63% of the votes for first place, 27% for second, and 7% for third. The Knicks followed with 30%, 53%, and 13% respectively. The Orlando Magic received 7% of the first-place votes and were projected to finish third overall, ahead of the Atlanta Hawks, Detroit Pistons, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, and Boston Celtics.
Individual Accolades: Jokic and Wembanyama Reign Supreme
The survey extended beyond team predictions to individual awards. Denver Nuggets star Nikola Jokic, a perennial MVP contender, was the clear frontrunner to win this year’s top individual honor, claiming 67% of the votes. However, it was San Antonio Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama who truly dominated the individual accolades, receiving 83% of the votes as the player GMs would choose to build a franchise around – securing the honor for the second consecutive season.
Rockets forward Amen Thompson was identified as the most likely candidate for a breakout season, earning 30% of the votes and aligning with his status as the current betting favorite for Most Improved Player.
There was broad agreement on the best players at each position, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jokic all claiming the honor at their respective positions. The small forward position saw the most variation, with Doncic receiving 40% of the vote, followed by Jayson Tatum (20%), Kevin Durant (17%), and LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard (7% each).
Offseason Grades and Future Outlook
The Atlanta Hawks were recognized for having the best offseason, receiving 53% of the votes, followed by the Rockets (27%) and Nuggets (10%). The Rockets’ acquisition of Kevin Durant was overwhelmingly selected as the offseason move with the biggest potential impact. The Orlando Magic were lauded as the most improved team (47%) and for making the most underrated move by trading for guard Desmond Bane. The Thunder, meanwhile, were recognized as the league’s best defensive team, earning 83% of the votes.
Looking ahead to the rookie class, Dallas Mavericks rookie Cooper Flagg, the No. 1 overall pick in June’s NBA draft, is the overwhelming favorite to win Rookie of the Year and be the best rookie from his class in five years. Miami Heat guard Kaspar Jakucionis was identified as the biggest steal in this year’s draft.
Finally, Wembanyama (80%) was selected as the league’s best defensive player, Erik Spoelstra (52%) as the best coach for the sixth straight season, and Jokic (80%) as the NBA’s best passer and player with the highest basketball IQ. Antetokounmpo and Wembanyama tied with 30% of the vote for the league’s most versatile player, while Stephen Curry (47%) was chosen as the player you’d want with the game on the line.
