The decades-long strategic alignment between Israel and the United States is facing a critical test as the two nations engage in a joint military operation against Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, long focused on both a strong relationship with Washington and confronting the Iranian government, has initiated a course of action that could strain ties with the U.S., particularly if the conflict escalates or becomes protracted. The current operation, dubbed “Operation Lion’s Roar,” aims to dismantle what Israel views as an existential threat, but success hinges on sustained U.S. Support and navigating a shifting American public opinion regarding the conflict.
Netanyahu’s decision to enlist the U.S. In direct military action against Iran represents a culmination of his efforts to forge a united front against Tehran. According to a statement released Saturday, Netanyahu believes this operation will “allow us to do what I have been hoping to do for 40 years — to deliver a crushing blow to the terror regime.” The operation is targeting facilities of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Basij, as well as ballistic missile sites, with the stated goal of ending the threat posed by the Ayatollah regime. Still, this alignment carries inherent risks, potentially dragging the U.S. Into a wider and more complex conflict in the Middle East.
A Gamble on U.S. Support
Persuading President Donald Trump to join the military operation was a significant diplomatic achievement for Netanyahu, highlighting the strong personal relationship between the two leaders. The initial success of the operation, including strikes that reportedly killed top Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, demonstrates a coordinated effort between the U.S. And Israeli militaries. However, sustaining this cooperation will depend on maintaining public and political support in both countries.
Ofer Shelah, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, cautioned that a prolonged war could erode U.S. Public support for Israel. “A large part of the American public will view it as the Israeli tail wagging the American dog and that We see dragging the United States to a war in the Middle East that isn’t theirs,” Shelah said. He added that Netanyahu appears less concerned with long-term consequences than with immediate political gains.
Shifting American Sentiment
Netanyahu’s gamble comes at a time when American public opinion regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the broader Middle East is evolving. According to Gallup polling, American sympathies in the region have shifted toward the Palestinians in recent years. This shift is largely driven by Democrats, but even some Republicans and supporters of Trump have expressed reservations about the level of U.S. Financial and diplomatic support for Israel, particularly in light of the devastating images emerging from the war in Gaza following Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attacks.
The war in Gaza and now the conflict with Iran, are occurring against a backdrop of increasing international isolation for Israel. The devastating consequences of the conflict have prompted greater scrutiny of Israel’s actions and policies. Netanyahu is attempting to frame the war against Iran as a necessary step to address an existential threat, citing Iran’s support for anti-Israeli militias, its ballistic missile program, and its pursuit of nuclear weapons. He has consistently positioned himself as a staunch opponent of Iran on the world stage.
Potential for Escalation and Domestic Concerns
The initial days of the war have seen close coordination between U.S. And Israeli forces, with joint strikes targeting key Iranian infrastructure. However, the conflict is already having repercussions beyond the immediate battlefield. At least six U.S. Troops have been killed, travel across the region has been disrupted, and oil prices have surged, raising concerns about the economic impact on American consumers.
The long-term implications of the war remain uncertain. It is unclear whether air power alone will be sufficient to topple the Iranian government, who or what will replace the current leadership, and what role the U.S. And Israel will play in any post-conflict scenario. As Nadav Eyal, a commentator with the Israeli Yediot Ahronoth daily newspaper, wrote, “Israel cannot afford to lose the American public’s support under any circumstances.”
With Israeli elections scheduled for the fall, Netanyahu may be strategically leveraging the conflict to divert attention from domestic issues, including criticism of his government’s handling of the Oct. 7 attacks. Aaron David Miller, who advised Democratic and Republican administrations on Middle East policy for over two decades, suggested that Netanyahu has limited downside risk. He believes Trump will be willing to de-escalate the conflict if it begins to falter, and that Netanyahu will likely follow suit.
The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and its impact on the U.S.-Israeli relationship. The ability of both governments to manage public expectations, address economic concerns, and maintain a unified front will be essential to navigating this complex and volatile situation. The next steps will likely involve continued military operations, diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict, and ongoing assessments of the political and economic consequences.
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