2022-10-26 22:33:17
The weighted average cost (taking into account the market share) of a new passenger car in Russia in the first nine months of 2022 amounted to 2.29 million rubles, which is 19% more than at the end of 2021. This is stated in the summary of operational analytics for the car market for September, prepared by the Avtostat agency (available from Vedomosti). For comparison: for the whole of last year, new cars have risen in price by 18% to 1.99 million rubles. for a car.
The main price increase occurred in January-February 2022, it was a continuation of the deficit that began in 2021 due to the lack of semiconductors, explains Sergey Udalov, Executive Director of Avtostat. After March, the demand for cars stood up and prices continued to remain at about the same level.
But during the special operation in Ukraine, with extremely limited supplies of most foreign cars from dealers’ warehouses, the market structure has changed, where now about 40% are Lada and 30% in total are Chinese, Udalov notes. An increase in the share of relatively inexpensive cars (Lada) and the persistence of a difficult situation with demand will keep prices down until the end of the year, he said.
According to the statistics of the Association of European Businesses (AEB), for the three quarters of 2022, sales of new and light commercial vehicles in Russia fell by 59.8% to 753,450 units, in September year-on-year – by 59.6% to 46,698 vehicles . Sales of Lada, according to the AEB, in September 2022 increased by 20% compared to the same month last year to 20,641 units. Demand for the most popular Chinese auto brands in Russia stagnated or grew. For example, Haval in September this year reduced sales by 2% to 3430 vehicles, Geely – by 4% to 2501 units, and demand for new Changan increased by 74% to 789 vehicles. Sales of former foreign leaders – Korean Kia and Hyundai – collapsed last month year on year by 81% to 3313 cars and by 71% to 3888 cars respectively.
According to the calculations of “AUTOSTAT”, in September, prices slightly – by 0.03% – decreased compared to August, which did not change the overall picture. Car loans issued for new cars last month decreased by 58% in monetary terms and by 56% in units compared to September 2021, the agency calculated. The share of cars purchased on credit in January-August 2022 amounted to almost 38%. Absolute indicators are not given in the summary.
But cars with mileage have risen in price even more than new ones in three quarters, follows from the data of Avtostat. Growth in this category amounted to 59% to 1.19 million rubles. a piece. In September, used cars rose in price by 1% compared to August.
At 59%
up to 1.19 million rubles. the weighted average price of a used car in Russia increased in September compared to the end of 2021, follows from Avtostat data
Cars under the age of seven years have grown over nine months in price slightly less than the rest – by 50% (2.27 million rubles per car), follows from Avtostat data. In September, these vehicles fell in price by 0.7% in monthly terms. The increase in prices in this segment is due to the shortage: there are no fresh cars, since the supply of new cars is extremely limited, Udalov states. Those who want to sell their car quickly and then leave the country due to partial mobilization contributed to a slight decrease in prices in September, he said.
A sharp drop in prices should not be expected, as there is a continuing shortage of cars – both new and used, says a representative of the Association of Auto Dealers. At the same time, the circle of represented brands has greatly narrowed, and therefore there is no competition, as before, he notes.
Average used car sales up 27% in nine months of 2022, auto dealer says “Rolf”. This is due to the fact that the cars redeemed by the company “have become fresher and more expensive.” Previously, up to 40% of the dealer’s warehouse consisted of cars accepted by trade-in at the age of 5–7 years, their cost was about 800,000 rubles, the source explains. This year, 95% of Rolf’s warehouse is the purchase of more expensive cars (1.5–2 million rubles) from the street under the age of three years and with low mileage, a company representative notes. In his opinion, this situation is similar to what is happening in the market as a whole.
“A car in Russia for a large number of people is still one of the reliable ways to save money. We see that the prices for the largest mass segment worth 1-1.5 million rubles. show stable growth of 8-10% per quarter,” says a Rolf representative.
The average price of a new car on sale at Avto.ru in October amounted to 3.4 million rubles, which is 9% more than at the beginning of the year, a company representative told Vedomosti. The peak of prices for new cars was in April, when the figure reached almost 4 million rubles, he notes. Used cars on Avto.ru have risen in price by 29% since the beginning of the year to 1.3 million rubles. a piece.
“In the face of uncertainty, many are postponing major purchases, so we can expect a local decline in prices for used cars. Prices for new cars will most likely continue to be determined by the deficit,” says Alexei Mukhanov, head of research and client analytics at Avto.ru.
According to the Drom.ru portal, the cost of new cars increased by 10% over nine months from 3 million to 3.3 million rubles. Prices for new cars are now set not by the market, but by the desire of dealers to sell at a higher price what is available, a company representative notes. The average cost of a used car on October 26 was 939,000 rubles. (+19%), he continues, adding that after the announcement of partial mobilization in Russia, demand decreased and sellers began to reduce prices.
“It is very difficult to say what will happen to the cost of cars by the end of the year. If the demand for used cars continues to decline, we may see a downward adjustment,” admits a representative of Drom.ru.
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