NFL Week 12 Picks: Expert Predictions and Lock of the Week for 2025
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Betting on the NFL can be a rollercoaster, and Week 11 proved to be a notably brutal ride. After a brief period of optimism, a 4-11 record against the spread (ATS) brought a harsh reality check. As one analyst noted, “We should’ve seen this coming.” Despite the setbacks, the focus now shifts to Week 12, with a renewed determination to identify winning picks, including a few bold predictions featuring promising rookie quarterbacks.
Week 11 Recap: A Bitter Taste
The recent performance was undeniably disappointing. Key upsets failed to materialize – the Commanders couldn’t hold on against the Miami Dolphins in Madrid, and a Packers -7.5 bet was burned by the hook. Both the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens faltered against inferior opponents, though they managed to avoid outright losses. While the five “locks of the week” yielded a modest 2-3 ATS record, it wasn’t a complete disaster.
Looking ahead, the goal is simple: learn from past mistakes and capitalize on opportunities in Week 12. This week’s selections include two rookie quarterbacks poised for success, offering a glimpse into the future of the league.
Teams on Bye in Week 12: Denver broncos, Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers, and Washington Commanders.
Week 12 Lock of the Week: Saints to Cover against Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons are in a precarious position. Currently on a five-game losing streak,compounded by back-to-back overtime defeats – including one played in Germany – the team faces further adversity with the placement of quarterback Michael Penix Jr. on injured reserve due to a knee injury. The return of Kirk Cousins under center hasn’t provided the expected spark, with the team averaging just 20.2 points per game with him as the starter dating back to last season.
Adding to the Falcons’ woes, wide receiver Drake London is likely to be sidelined with a knee injury. If the Falcons’ defense continues to allow 27.8 points and 399.6 total yards per game, the New Orleans Saints have a clear path to their third win of the season. Saints quarterback Tyler Shough, coming off a Week 11 bye, will have ample time to prepare for this crucial divisional matchup.
Projected Score: Saints 23, Falcons 21
The Pick: Saints -1.5
Shedeur sanders’ Debut: Browns to Cover Against Raiders
The biggest storyline in the Cleveland Browns versus Las Vegas Raiders game is undoubtedly Shedeur Sanders’ frist career start, filling in for Dillon Gabriel who is in concussion protocol. While Sanders’ performance last week wasn’t stellar, this pick hinges on the Raiders’ struggles. Currently ranked 30th in total yards and tied for 30th in points per game, the Raiders offense is in disarray.
Facing a Brown
