NFL Week 17 Predictions: ESPN Analytics Reveals Upset Potential for 2025 Games
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As the NFL season heads into its penultimate week, playoff positioning is becoming increasingly critical. ESPN Analytics has released its “Matchup Predictor” numbers, offering a data-driven look at the probabilities for all 16 Week 17 games. These predictions, analyzed as of December 24, 2025, at 7:06 a.m. MT, reveal some surprising potential upsets and closely contested matchups. While differing from traditional NFL Week 17 odds and other expert picks, the analytics provide a compelling layer of insight for fans and bettors alike.
Christmas Day Showdowns: Cowboys, Lions, and Broncos in Action
The Week 17 schedule kicks off on Christmas Day with three key games. The Dallas Cowboys, currently favored, have a 56.1% chance of defeating the Washington Commanders, according to the ESPN model. However, the Commanders aren’t seen as a guaranteed loss, boasting a 43.6% win probability, leaving room for a potential holiday surprise.
Later that day, the Detroit Lions travel to Minnesota to face the Vikings. The Lions are projected to have a strong showing, with a 68.7% chance of victory. The Vikings, despite being underdogs, still hold a 31.1% chance of pulling off an upset.
Rounding out the Christmas Day slate, the Denver Broncos face the Kansas City Chiefs in a pivotal AFC West matchup. The analytics give the Broncos a slight edge, with a 57.9% win probability, while the Chiefs are given a 41.8% chance to secure a win.
Saturday and Sunday Contests: Tight Races and Potential Upsets
Saturday’s action features the Houston Texans visiting the Los Angeles Chargers. This game is nearly a coin flip, with the Chargers having a 52.4% chance of winning and the Texans a 47.2% chance. The Baltimore Ravens and Green Bay Packers also face off on Saturday in a game predicted to be incredibly close, with the Ravens holding a slight 50.2% advantage over the Packers’ 49.4%.
Sunday’s early games present several intriguing scenarios. The Seattle Seahawks are heavily favored against the Carolina Panthers, with a 68.3% win probability. The Arizona Cardinals face a tougher challenge against the Cincinnati Bengals, where the Bengals are predicted to win with a 66.1% chance. The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to dominate the Cleveland Browns, boasting a 72% win probability, while the Browns are given only a 27.8% chance.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are favored in their matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, with a 59.2% chance of victory. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are predicted to outperform the Miami Dolphins, holding a 69% win probability. In a potentially surprising result, the New England Patriots are heavily favored against the New York Jets, with a 71.7% chance of winning. The New Orleans Saints are also favored in their contest against the Tennessee Titans, with a 55.9% win probability.
Primetime Games: Bears, 49ers, Rams, and Falcons Take Center Stage
Sunday Night Football features the Chicago Bears traveling to face the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are favored to win, with a 59.9% chance, while the Bears have a 39.8% chance of securing an upset victory.
Monday Night Football concludes the Week 17 schedule with the Los Angeles Rams visiting the Atlanta Falcons. The Rams are significant favorites, with a 71.1% chance of winning, leaving the Falcons with a 28.7% chance of pulling off a late-season victory.
These predictions, while insightful, are not guarantees. As one analyst noted, the unpredictable nature of the NFL means that any game can unfold in unexpected ways. Fans can watch these games on various networks including Netflix, Prime Video, NFL Network, CBS, FOX, NBC, Peacock, and ESPN, with streaming options available through services like FUBO.
